Project SAFE Predictions!

Marketing
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There’s a lot of serious threads on this forum. I thought it would be FUN to have a thread on predictions. It can be anything related to Project SAFE. Here are some examples.

What month/year will we launch the SAFE Network? June 2015
How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? 10Gb
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? $1.00
Will the first killer App be a Game or Social Network? @Seneca’s Game
Which celebrity will be the first to use/endorse the SAFE Network? Edward Snowden

Get out your crystal ball, magic mirror, best hallucinogen… and post your Predictions!!!

EDIT: I think some people got the impression I was poking fun at our Release Time Line. But I meant no disrespect to the Devs. I put the year in question because I don’t know what unforeseen obstacles we will encounter in TestNet3. Sorry if you got the wrong impression. This was just for fun. :smile:

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Year!!!..lol.

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What month/year will we launch the SAFE Network? June 2015 - August AT BEST
How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? 10Gb - 27.68Gb
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? $1.00 0.15£
Will the first killer App be a Game or Social Network? @Seneca’s Game - Game
Which celebrity will be the first to use/endorse the SAFE Network? Edward Snowden - Satoshi of course!

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What month/year will we launch the SAFE Network? 13 Octobre 2015 at 10:27am PST just after their morning coffee break.
How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? About 500Gb, farmers will go crazy on the amount of storage they’ll provide, I know I will.
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? $0.45, storage is cheap
Will the first killer App be a Game or Social Network? @dyamanaka your famous right?

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lol, I’m famous with my family & friends. That’s what matters to me.

To the general public, I’m unknown, and it’s better that way.

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What month/year will we launch the SAFE Network? My wishful thinking suggests June - July. But my intuition says August to October. (Beta)
How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? I also think about 500GB
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? I have no idea at all but will be excited to see. Hopefully not too much honestly. Somewhere under a dollar would seem appropriate I think.
What will the first killer App be a Game or Social Network? Just learned about ‘Synereo’ a social network that plans to launch on the SAFE Network that sounds promising. That’s besides Lifestuff/Workstuff of course :wink:

[@happybeing: I’m not sure if Synereo’s plans qualify as a SAFE app or not, and this aspect is undecided ATM according to the podcast with Dor which you posted]

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  • What month/year will we launch the SAFE Network? September 2015 (You’re asking about the year? Ouch!)
  • How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? 2 GB
  • How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? $0.03 (i.e. the same as currently)
  • Will the first killer App be a Game or Social Network? Downloads portal (something like the Pirate Bay, just without torrents)
  • Which celebrity will be the first to use/endorse the SAFE Network? Julian Assange (a celebrity in certain circles)
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a). May/2015
b 5 Gig
.c) $ 0.09
.d) Browser
e). Jimmy Krankie (May as well use the cream of Scottish cultural heritage in our marketing).

Here is a photo from his recent SNP leadership win (under the pseudonym of “Nicola Sturgeon”)

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Launch: August 2015
Space: it’s dynamic and I think it will jump all over the place until the network stabilizes a bit, but somewhere around 200-300gig average.
Price: ~40c usd
First app: some type of torrent replacement.
Celeb: possibly s’den

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500 GB for US$1?
Farmer suicide rates would eclipse those in 3rd world countries.

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Beta launch in April 2015. :smile: Well, maybe not but hopefully soon.

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I would be happy with testnet 3 by April 2015! :smile:

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August 2015, 10 safecoin per gig, At launch 1 safecoin = 10 cents, the first killer app will be a social networking site like Synereo, First celeb to endorse will be… I got nothing. But just to throw a name out there I’ll say Gerard Butler, being a proud Scottish man and all. We should throw this to a predictive market platform and back our predictions with cold hard safecoin :wink:

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@dyamanaka said to take my best hallucinagen

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Wouldn’t that be $10 per gig? Seems a bit steep…
Definitely will be somewhere in between yours and Nigel’s prediction then…lol

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I think a question that’s easier to grasp for me, mentally, is, “How many dollars/GB will it cost to store data at launch?”

Today

  • Dropbox charges me $99/TB/Year = $0.10/GB/Year - must pay every year
  • S3 charges me $0.0300/GB/Month = $0.36/GB/Year - must pay every year
  • 1TB Western Digital HD costs me $50 = $0.05/GB - one time charge,
    just like maidsafe

So I think maidsafe won’t end up costing less than $0.05/GB since it includes encryption and redundancy.
I think maidsafe should end up costing more than one year worth of dropbox or S3, since those services bill you every year.

Let me think about it as a farmer. Let’s say I go and I buy that 1TB Western Digital HD for $50, to use for farming. Because of data redundancy, it takes 4 of me to store 1TB of data. So, we can say that

FarmerIncome_Dollars_per_GB = UserCost_Dollars_per_GB / 4

So, if I want to make a 100% profit on my $50 harddrive investment, I need to charge $100 for maidsafe users to fill it up. This $100 will take me years to earn, and I’m also paying electricity, etc, so 100% profit seems like a minimum that would make me even contemplate becoming a farmer.

But remember, that because of redundancy, for me to make X, maidsafe users must pay 4X to store the data.

So, that puts us at $400/TB = $0.40/GB, which is more than S3 charges, which is fair, since we’re storing forever and encrypted.

Therefore, I predict this.

How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? 2.5Gb
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? $1.00
What will the effective Cost/GB be for maidsafe storage? $0.40/GB

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I predict the SAFE network will have a predictions market :laughing:

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Pretty well reasoned @Tom_Carlson. But I think there’s another factor that you’re not weighting properly.

Most people won’t be going out to buy new hardware just to farm. Almost anyone these days has an extra 20 to 50 gb of extra capacity on their HD. So the bulk of the resource contributed to the network will be no added cost to the farmers.

So I’m liking:

How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? 5 Gb
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? $1.00
What will the effective Cost/GB be for maidsafe storage? $0.20/GB

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Keep in mind that the duplicated files are not saved.
According to calculations performed it represents over 80% of stored data saving.

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I thought the deduplication, the chunk use and a smart compression after encryption could help to save a lot of space. I believed that 1To HD could be quite 1 To on the network all copies included. I was wrong ?

Edit : on top of this, when someone buy 1To he is ALLOWED to store up to 1to but usually he is storing may be only 250 gb. The farmer store in his vault ONLY the 250gb not the 1To.

So for me:
What month/year will we launch the SAFE Network? September 2015
How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? 15 Gb
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? From $1.00 to $2
What will the effective Cost/GB be for maidsafe storage? $0.02/GB