Project SAFE Predictions!

Can you share the calculations that you said you performed?

I really doubt that it saves a fraction of that. Most data will be private. Private data can’t be deduplicated because if I encrypt a file with my key, and you encrypt the same file with your key, the data on the network is now completely different.

Deduplication could be used for public data, but what percentage of maidsafe storage is used for public data remains to be seen. Usually, if I have data I want to make public, I use the regular internet. Only if I have data that would be removed from the internet because of moral or political considerations, would I need to use maidsafe to release it. Doubtless we can list lots of cases where this would be needed, but in percentage terms, I can’t imagine it being anywhere close to 80%, or even 20%.

Just fixing your math. If you believe $0.02/GB, and you believe $1.00 to $2 safecoins, then each safecoin will buy between 50GB and 100GB

One thing that hasn’t been factored (and I’m not at all sure how one would factor it) is that the safecoin/gb resource is spent largely upon PUT data which isn’t necessarily stored permanently, i.e., messaging, voip, etc.

Just a thought.

Omho Effective cost is not effective price.

The way I’ve been using it, they are the same. “Cost/GB for maidsafe storage” means cost to store data on maidsafe. That seems clear enough to me.

You are now, apparently, saying you were instead, listing $0.02 as the cost to the farmer to store the data. OK, fair enough, although a lot more detail as to where that number came from would be interesting.

Irvine gave it in an old post. A very important part of the data will be music, series, and movies. And another important part of the private data also will be shared.

Think that 80% of the information will be unique seems extremely pessimistic.

Regarding music, series, and movies. Browse a bit-torrent site and look at all the movies they have that are “the same”. Some are at 1080P, some at 720P, some are Blue-Rray, BDRIP, HDRIP, DVD, DVDRIP, X264, etc. each of those would fail to be deduplicated. But it’s even worse. If you rip it at 1080P and I rip it at 1080P, your and mine will still not deduplicate, because they’ll still not be bit for bit identical. That’s not to say that deduplication can’t happen. Look at how many seeds there are to a popular file on bittorrent sites. Those are bit for bit identical files. That’s opportunity for deduplication and it’s significant. But the bittorrent software does that for us by default. When I download a file, it’s available for you to download from me, as a feature of the software. That behavior makes bit for bit identical copies of popular files prevalent in the bit-torrent world. In maidsafe, it’s much less automated. You get an idea to upload “The Matrix”, and I also get an idea to upload “The Matrix”. What are the chances that your and my uploads will be identical? Not nearly as great as the “rebroadcast” behavior of bit-torrent.

I would like to understand a lot more about “the private data also will be shared”. I think that’s not true, and if it is true, I’m interested in learning about it.

AFAIK the chunks are not encrypted using your own private key, instead each chunk is encrypted using the hash of the previous chunk in the file. What you are encrypting with your key is the datamap that links all chunks together. This means that in order to decrypt a chunk, you need to know which chunks come before it in the file. But if you and me upload the same file, the chunks will be the same which makes deduplication works for private data too.

I think.

EDIT: Found the doc
EDIT2: My description is a simplified view of the process. There’s more magic going on but that’s the basic idea.

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Thank you for sharing that. That’s very cool.

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Yeah, it’s quite clever.

I know the bittorrent, and the download sites, and almost all date is the same. There are a few different copies but most of the user have the same files. The same goes for the music or series.

Two other features of the SAFE network tends to fewer copies. One is the existence of the cache that accelerates downloads with many users. The other is that upload an, almost identical, copy costs safecoin, so there is no benefit in doing so.

OK trying mate.
1 farmer has 1To vault
1 user buy 1To storage (push rights) but use (average) 250gb-500gb year
→ 1 farmer store 2 to 4 users real pushes
OK count 2only.

Each user pays 75$ ----> 150$for the network for 1 farmer and they will pay again when they need more.
Farmer gets revenues from GET requests.
He stores 1To and each GB stored produce some Get requests He receives 0.02 so $20 revenue for 1To stored each year from the network.

Why so low ? Because 1To is $45. Many farmers will accept to run a vault for a already paid disk (AT LAUNCH) Hey its free money for hardware rotting in my drawer !
When the safe network 'll have more services and apps the demand will increase. The safecoin will rise. The farmers get more Gets and more money and professional farmers will come.

According Gartner group on big storage the duplication can save up to 80-90% disk space. The bigger the storage is better is the result. I can imagine how successful this can be with the Safe network

Wrong.
That’s not how MaidSafe deduplication currently works and it was explained in many threads (e.g. most recently in Does compressed data count as different?).

Thank you @janitor
I have read this thread but I can’t see where this can be wrong. Could you explain please ?
Deduplication seems to me to be more and more efficient as storage is growing. The chance a chunk/hash has been already uploaded is greater.

Sorry for my English.

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@Melvin

“Perceived value” does not rely solely on facts. There’s so many examples in history: tulip bulbs, stocks, precious metals, housing bubbles. Most of the time, all you need is marketing hype to drive the price up or negative PR to drive it down. Any price is possible because humans are emotional. $1 is just a “shot in the dark” guess. :smile:


Having said that, I can look at Safecoin’s Network Value and use it as a base line. This is how I derived my own prediction.

What is Safecoins Network Value?
It’s how many Gb of storage 1 Safecoin will buy. This is set by the Network, fluctuates with supply/demand, and has not launched yet. So it’s impossible to tell right now.

My Base Line (Speculation)
If 1 Safecoin buys 10Gb of storage for life, how much is that compared to other cloud storage services?

As of this writing, the cloud cost per Gb (per month) is between $0.02 and $0.04… so we’ll use $0.02.

Most likely the user stores for 1 year (the average lifespan of most hard drives)…
12months x $0.02 = $0.24 per Gb.
10Gb x $0.24 = $2.40

Relatively speaking, 1 Safecoin has the purchasing power of $2.40… at 10Gb per Safecoin.
But wait a minute, it’s new, and people don’t trust it yet. Exactly, so let’s cut that amount in half.
That leaves us with $1.20 which I rounded down to $1.00

This does not factor in: killer Apps, Mass Adoption, or how deduplication effectively maximizes storage capacity, causing 1 Safecoin to buy more than 10Gb for life!

How did I get 1 Safecoin buys 10Gb? Wild Guess, haha!

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@antoine, in enterprise storage systems, which are relatively expensive (per unit of capacity), deduplication can save money.
In Big Data, even when it’s used by enterprises, deduplication is not popular because it takes resources to deduplicate and “revert” deduplication (which is required if you want to access data that was deduplicated). In this case it is said that enterprise-like deduplication would be “expensive”.
In loosely coupled systems, such as MaidSafe, deduplication would be extremely expensive.

Now, since MaidSafe has deduplication, how come it’s not used?
Deduplication that’s used in enterprises attempts to go after very high-hanging fruit (because the storage is so expensive). So apart from the simple things (like 2 identical files in different directories), it can go down to block level (4KB, for example).
So if one file has 14 KB and then you open that file, Save as... and append 4KB to that new file, you’ll have 2 files that are very similar. If your block size is 4KB, you need 4 data blocks for the first file (4 * 4 KB = 16 KB) and just 2 data blocks for the “non-deduplicable” part of the second file (4KB for the additionally added part, but because it’s spread over the 4th and 5th block of the second file, you need 2 blocks). There are other approaches too, and most involve a lot of data churning…

MaidSafe works with very cheap storage and there’s no need to employ such complicated approaches.
In the same scenario above, the both files (without any deduplication) would fit within a single chunk.

If you had a 4GB large ISO file and if you appended 4KB to a copy of that file and uploaded the both to MaidSafe, only the last chunk or two would differ, while the rest would be identical. MaidSafe would look at chunk hashes, rather than 4KB blocks.

If you had a 4GB compressed video and added 1 frame in the middle, I think all MaidSafe chunks after that frame would differ, so in that case only 50% would be deduplicated, even if you added just 1 letter on a single frame in the middle of the video file.

What Gartner says is that you can save 80 or more percent of capacity in absurd scenarios like VDI (where you create a golden VMware desktop image, then from it 20 VMware images for different departments and apps, and then serve those to 500 people. In the end you can save 80% and instead of 10 GB * 500 use much less, but that’s because enterprise hardware and software is specifically made to save space and deduplicate that exact type of frequently seen scenario.

You’re right I was thinking more like $1 per gig. So make that 10 SafeCoin per gig.

Thank you @janitor

I think some of you are being too much like technical engineers!

Trying to figure out Safecoin’s value based upon costs at a strict 1:1 ratio is undervaluing this project.

Here are my predictions:

What month/year will we launch the SAFE Network? – September/October 2015
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at beta? $0.60 to $0.90
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at launch? $1.20 to $2.70
When will MaidSafe gain real momentum? February/March 2016
Will SafeCoins trade at a significant value higher than at launch? Yes.
When will MaidSafe hit its first *big price valuation? November/December 2017

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