When do you think Safe Network will launch?

All things must be in place for Maidsafe to feel comfortable having the conversion to the real SN Token, so I mark that as launch aka Beta.

Persistent data, farming, token economics, network splits/growth with Fleming → Upgrades with Maxwell → Token conversion → Beta (launch)

10 Likes

Many are waiting for the time when data will be permanent and never wiped.

“Many” are not waiting for this, everyone is waiting for this. If the network wipes itself it’s not a full launch.

Others waiting for the time they can be rewarded in tokens that are the final tokens and will remain.

If token is not final, it’s not a full launch.

And others will only accept launch when its officially stated.

I expect it to be announced officially as a launch / beta launch. But if it ends up being a failed launch with the team having to go back to the drawing board I’d argue that wasn’t the launch after all. The full launch is when the network is live - forever.

Actual launch may just be a network that has been running for 3 or 6 months without any major bug fixes.

No, if the network has been running for 3-6 months without major bugs it’s a successful launch, but the launch occurred the moment it went live.

To summarize:
A full launch is not a test network. A full launch is when the network is live - forever. That includes all essential features discussed; decentralization, permissionless, persistent data, token, farming, upgrades etc.

5 Likes

I asked Santa for SAFE for Christmas 2022. I’ve been a verrry good boy.

6 Likes

It will happen when it happens :grimacing:

All true but I think @neo’s point is that eventually a test net or pseudo launch like a fifteenth iteration of Fleming might be stable enough to keep running and if that is the case, perhaps that becomes the network, so where was launch really?

I think it will be a little bit more cut an dry and I’m trying to keep the definitions of launch based off of the most important aspects that need a fully functional network and define a new paradigm, which would be the conversion process from MAID to SN Token.

2 Likes

The last iteration would have been the launch. But this is nitpicking, the poll is about gauging the general sentiment.

Looking at the previous polls gives us interesting insight into the sentiment at the time.

Sorry, but I have to rant a bit regarding delayed launch:

Let’s face it, people here have been terrible at predicting the launch date, but who can blame them? The project was originally supposed to launch in 2014.

In 2019 - 80% thought we were mere months away from launch, and that’s not the first time the community has felt that way. In 2019, after some internal reorganization of the team things were indeed looking up, perhaps better than ever. We were told that progress over the next 2 months would leave us spinning backwards, yet here we are, 2022 is around the corner and there is no sign of launch, not even testnet.

It’s not discussed anymore. We used to have github charts showing remaining process, but that was several years ago now. Whatever happened with the MVP?

A reoccurring theme over the years: We’re seemingly super close to launch, and everyone believes it. Then something comes up. In 2014 it was decided to re-write everything in Rust. In 2018 PARSEC was all the rage. Now it’s DBC.

On top of this it the endless amount of refactoring and performance related work that just never ends. Maybe it’s the engineers dilemma - or just perfectionism gone wild.

Seriously, go dive into the old forum history and feel the sentiment at various stages. It’s amazingly accurate:

This is just a few examples, there are so many more. When you read these threads, does it seem like people think the launch is 8+ years away in 2014? 5+ years away in 2017?

I’m not blaming, but expectation does not match reality whatsoever.

At some point it might be worthwhile to ask how this could have happened. How could we be so wrong? How did weeks turn into months, months into years, and years into soon what will be decades?

Of course, a project of this scale is no easy feat, but that’s why a MVP was needed. Sometimes you need to cut corners to deliver. I’m a programmer, I know how tempting it is to keep perfecting my projects, but it never ends. Give me all the time in the world, I can continue to improve, explore new technologies forever and never deliver.

The future is looking extremely grim for the web. Mainstream thought, politicians and big business has all but taken over the major role and control of the internet. Freedom is long dead. Centralized platforms is easily regulated and forced to supress information. The anarchic, free, decentralized web is today a pipe dream. Almost all providers (from hosts to domain providers) participates in cancel culture. Those who refuse gets canceled themselves.

We needed a decentralized web 5 years ago, but today it is an emergency.

I don’t want to have to make another poll 5 years from now.

31 Likes

It’s not perfectionism. It’s about creating a network that works or doesn’t, and it seems that for the first time they are confident the core works and it’s a matter of putting the essentials in place within that, ensuring it can survive, be upgraded etc.

As you are a developer, I expect you can tell the difference between building an application and getting drawn into endlessly perfecting it, or creating some astounding tech that’s never happened before.

8 Likes

2024 for me.

2022/2023 - full of bug hunting! 2 years of squashing bugs!

2 Likes

No offence, but you have been notoriously off in all your predictions. You’ve said basically the same thing for over half a decade.

Case in point, here’s a post from 2014:

Yes, you were planning a launch party. A launch party - in 2014?

You’ve made too many posts to read through it all, so I’ve just quickly skimmed some of your posts, but it goes on and on:

2015:

2017:

Yet, here you are - 7 years later - repeating the same mantra.

I understand you’re one of the people closest to the project. When you can be that delusional, what does that tell the rest of us?

5 Likes

When we never went for data chains but pivoted to a fully ordered network, very much against my will at least, but that happened. We now are doing data chains and added in DBC’ss as a much better cash supply.

Had we gone data chains and CRDT back then the picture would be very different.

12 Likes

Why is it everytime we get a step closer and should be having good honest hope and optimism in the forum.

We always get served a steaming helping of FUD by our resident fud’s?

5 Likes

Hey man, when you’re right, you’re right. I voted for 2023 because in reality, there is still so much to be done though once things are stable and the releases are already being streamlined, the team can grow/scale and everything can move much faster. So I’m trying to be conservative with that but I have no way of knowing. We’re all been wrong before.

I’m judging progress on the strength/longevity/success of the test nets. So far it’s working but not for long but those are just hang ups.

I see your concerns and they are valid. I’m personally confident, although I’m not rushing or pushing excessively hard on my development, just keeping steady, always thinking, but only time will tell ‘when’.

I think it is a ‘when’ though and not ‘if’.

3 Likes

We should be more positive and supportive. Also active participants. So I hope that others can join in on that effort.

1 Like

I’m pegging my date on 2024 May to be precise :wink:

Anyone coming here for the first time will see any positivity being pounced on with a dose of FUD time and time again.

We are all here because we believe in this project and the team behind it.

So if people are unhappy they should pack up and not let the door hit them on the way out.

1 Like

I think FUD is different than concern. The fact some of the concerns seems tied to a demand of action is difficult to address as those concerns will not be addressed at this time (marketing, focus on awareness) until launch is much closer.

This doesn’t seem like FUD to me but it isn’t worth harping on either, so. One poll and a short conversation, fine but discussing it ad nauseam would end up being more destructive than informative so I would agree there.

Strength in numbers but let’s all be strong individually to make the collective strength that much stronger, eh folks? :wink:

That’s it from me here.

2 Likes

Really?

I’m no closer to the project than anyone who follows the updates. Everything I’ve written over the years has been based on public information, what I find in terms of consensus in the community and what MaidSafe tell us, filtered through my own experience. I gave up making predictions quite some time ago, but here you are making a poll when you already believe that folk here are delusional and predictions have always been wrong so far. :thinking:

7 Likes

I understand the strategy of starting a testnet and after 12 months of beta uptime stating, “hey folks, guess this is a safe network”. However, it would be a shame to not have a festive launch party and official countdown after all the years of hard work. Is a “post-launch” party just as exciting? I don’t know.

5 Likes

Thing is, there will not be any festive launch party unless you want EVERYONE at that party to be arrested and put in jail by the time it’s launched in 2023.

So either launch it and have a discreet decentralized post-launch party, or wait till 2023 have a launch party crashed by swat team to arrest all of you and have no launch at all.

Obviously it seems like you prefer the latter. Launch party or no launch! Because why? Parties are essential!

2 Likes

@warz , Thanks. Your explanation shows the facts and is very reasonable to me. When we are convinced of something, it is hard to look away from it and see ourselves. Your writing makes me think calmly about the realization of SN.

There are many people in this community who have a good purpose but are enthusiastic about SN’s goals. At times, some of the members seem too enthusiastic about SN. So I see that they unconsciously hate pessimistic writing about SN. Of course, this great belief belongs to them. I can’t say anything to him about this. However, I want the community to be more open about expressing different opinions. Of course, it’s basic to talk based on facts like @warz .

Most cryptocurrency projects use Ledger technology, such as Bitcoin, in which nodes in the network manage a single replicated ledger. This is a proven technology. Therefore, in this case, adding new features may not be a big problem.

However, unlike other projects, SN aims at anonymous web + cryptocurrency withs DBCs at the same time. SN wants to develop both at the same time. This is entirely up to the SN team to decide. But I think it’s easier for SN to launch cryptocurrency first and then add anonymous web functions later.

In addition, unlike other projects, SN team proceeds with development based on goals (20 fundamental principles https://primer.safenetwork.org/). Other projects certainly seem to be focused on faster development and making money than these principles.

Just as humans have to make a choice every moment, the SN team made the choice. However, SN’s choice is also different from what I think. In other words, I think now is an ‘era of privacy,’ not an ‘era of anonymity’. Despite these differences, SN’s sincerity toward their goals is too good for me. Also, SN looks like trying to implement something more fundamental.

In particular, I was fascinated by DBCs and Spentbook. In other words, I’m very excited about SN’s DBCs and huge fan of DBCs. It also seems so beautiful to me that clients handle almost everything by using AT2 concepts. So, I think SN’s the big direction is set very well now, thus I guess the development will proceed well. Thanks @warz

19 Likes

Going with late 2023 now. I hope they stop scope creep and make something basic where the fundamental ideas are implemented first. I fear with all the UI mockups its already much deeper than a MVP kinda launch though. Been away and will come back to crypto and maybe this project more once the bull run has finished its cycle and I can pickup coins 70% off from these levels.

1 Like