So true!
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Bitcoin won’t be a currency. It won’t live up to any of the hype that was pitched about it. Its tech does not have to improve at all. It is simply an alternative store of value. Other cryptos will not be tollerated by states- only bitcoin will be allowed. Their little window existed to help get bitcoin up and running and to rev the sector so the open tech by hook or crook could
clould be applied to the SDRs and their linked fiats as necessary. Tax policy will never allow the cryptos that are not fiats to be allowed. SAFE is going to need to be able to scale without a coin. The SAFE crypto tech if worth while will be taken by governments to bolster their fiats or SDRs. If this happen expect states to be totally classified- we take whatever we want and do whatever we want zero justifucation or recompense or acknowledgement about it- out will come the gags and worse if need be. They take the viability of their currencies as top level national security stuff and will be inflexible to the limit about it. If you look at bitcoin and look at who developed it and who pushes it and made it possible and why you can see the writing on the wall. They will at some point get as nasty with other cryptos as they do with counterfeiters. They won’t allow creative monies in their jurisdictions or trade blocks and states will collaborate to suppress them. This is all the US. There was a time when the US temporarily allowed US banks to issues their own currency equivalents. It was just an experiment to fit a pre determined purpose- some kind of beta test. Once they get what they want they shut stuff down with standardization with civil code. This is like public works kind of stuff- its code or as Michael Saylor says protocol. It was possible that bitcoin did work out but it did and now as Michael says we’re stuck with it like English or arabic numerals. Also what seemed to be its flaws turned out to be its strengths when viewed from the perspective of what states wanted.
People must remember how and why Bitcoin came about. It wasn’t a way to get people rich. It was a way to supplant banks and fiat money. There is a reason ‘Satoshi’ wished to remain anonymous, as powerful people had big incentives to stop him and make an example of him.
The reason for needing cryptocurrencies remain the same, despite the original message being lost in the rush to get rich. If Bitcoin can’t survive with the original use case in tact, it will be up to another technology to take the baton and stay in the race.
Make no mistake, our privacy and liberty continue to come under threat. It has always been thus. It will always be down to a minority to take a stand, to do it because it is right. While many in the wider crypto community seem to have forgotten this, Maidsafe has kept Safe Network pushing towards its original goal - Secure Access For Everyone. I feel this community also has.
I get that people think Bitcoin will be stopped, co-opted, neutered, but the original motivation is ever present. If Bitcoin becomes ineffective, the same motivations will drive folks towards something which is effective. It is just what some humans do - we want to be free.
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Warren,
I like your posts but I can’t read a wall of text - can you format this post sensibly?
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Bitcoin is the best base layer of trust we have. It doesn’t necessarily need to be anything else. It is energy intensive, but we don’t yet know how valuable a trust layer is. It might be worth half the world’s energy! Which is less of an issue if it’s renewable.
I would certainly investigate the Lightning Network before discounting Bitcoin, as that can make private and secure micropayments. It’s years ahead of any other decentralised solution and it will use the Bitcoin brand as leverage. Think of it as a decentralised and more efficient Visa. It’s also got a bunch of other very interesting features for identity and data transport.
Look out for Bitcoin cash back apps built on Lightning, and gaming too. I think someone else mentioned instant cross boarder payments - those are using Lightning.
See What is the Lightning Network? - ION Lightning Network Wiki for a basic intro.
Better technologies come along but network effects are far more important. The best base layer is already built and has 13 years of real world use. I’m not betting against that and IMO it’s only just getting started.
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Phillip, bitcoin is all that will be allowed in publically available crypto but it won’t be a currency just a stable store of value- period full stop. There is a global monetary union that serves to reinforce state power, bitcoin was a product of that many decades in the making and only a component of a patch for the fiat system. The reinforcement of state power is not something states dissagree about. No they work together on it.
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I’ve the (maybe wrong) impression that also the power consumption of Bitcoin gets more attention recently. So don’t ignore that aspect (excuse if you will) in a possible future ban (or effort to) of Bitcoin. It would maybe more difficult to ban Bitcoin compared to other coins, but I don’t see why it would be spared in the long run.
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Bitcoin wasting energy is favourite topis of Bitcoin haters, but it is problem that solves itself eventually. What is better, pay the electricity to mine and then waste the heat, or use the heat to heating houses or grow something in cold climate and make some more money out of it?
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Bitcoin is the result of a unique set of circumstances which have, 12 years later, resulted in it being seen as a speculative store of value. Technologically its not perfect but as far as decentralised, p2p networks go its the most battle tested by far and its weaknesses don’t impact its potential store-of-value utility. We currently know it can store over $1T. The longer that continues, the more confident everyone will be of its security and stability.
Make no mistake, its still a speculative asset, but a store-of-value doesn’t get to be a store of value over night: 95% of people still need to be persuaded and that might take a whole generation or two. If I wanted to buy a store-of-value now I would buy gold or property. If I believe Bitcoin will be a store-of-value in the future then I would invest based on a risk/reward calculation.
So whats wrong with Bitcoin? Not much IMO. Can it be improved? Sure, slowly and incrementally. Bitcoin can only optimise within the constraints of being a store-of-value. If it can do other things then that’s a bonus, but long-term most other things will probably be done elsewhere by networks that optimise for those things. Lightning is interesting, for instance, and will increase the transaction utility of Bitcoin, but there is nothing binding it to Bitcoin - it could run on pretty much any blockchain.
In my view, the future will be filled with interconnected p2p networks, each specialising and optimising for a certain use cases. Bitcoin is the first instance of this and is optimised for store-of-value.
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