I completely agree with this, most of my projects did not meet original timescales, the reason why I mentioned that I had worked as an IT PM was to show that I understand these complexities and the frustrations of handling complex projects rather than to claim some sort of special expertise. Later in my career I wrote a dissertation on the management of complex chaotic projects as at the time i was working on projects which had not been defined but which had very hard delivery dates which meant we had to do the work before we even knew what was going to be delivered.
From a personal perspective.
What we know:
- MaidSafe has a certain level of funds for operations.
- MaidSafe continues to open offices and hire employees.
- MaidSafe continues to recruit additional employees.
- MaidSafe outreach is expanding.
- MaidSafe team continues on a steady, progressive path.
- MaidSafe project has far-reaching goals and worldwide life-changing possibilities.
- Longtime non-employee participants, as demonstrated on the forum, include many respected over-achievers in various fields, not given to impetuous dedication.
- Extraordinary patience is a requirement for a MaidSafe devotee.
What we can surmise:
- MaidSafe team would have much greater turnover if the internal morale or enthusiasm were low or if the team did not have confidence in a reasonable, albeit nebulous, time frame for launch.
- MaidSafe seems confident of its financial wherewithal, otherwise it would not be expanding.
All these things together and the general tenor of the project lead me to believe in it. I think a close examination of the history and demeanor of the principals is also an important factor in the evaluation. All these things considered, I would personally be shocked if launch did not occur before 2020 rolls around, probably much sooner though. There I said it - a firm (sort of) prognostication.
Welcome to the forum, it sounds like you will fit right in and have some real value to add.
Remember that MaidSafe held a second round of fundraising on Banktothefuture in 2016. They collected a lot of that >£1M in BTC, ETH etc. They have said they held some of those cryptocurrencies (as avid believers in the decentralisation movement and the ecosystems being built around them).
Obviously they will have spent a fair whack of that money, but given most of it could have done a 10-15x in the meantime and their burn rate at the time of the sale was only around £80k pm I’d say they are probably still fine for at least a year, maybe two.
As VaCrunch says, we can’t know for sure because the accounts aren’t public, but with expansions and new hires happening all the time it does not look like they are trying to stem the bleed on their burn rate. If they aren’t worried yet then neither am I personally. No one can stretch a few quid like a Scotsman can
EDIT: and if the worst came to the worst they could also borrow the 15M coins the MaidSafe foundation controls to finish the project - they are worth nothing if maidsafe never completes the work after all. The market values them at over $15M bucks though and that would be another year or three if it were really needed.
This only works for projects that are doing something that has been done before. Maidsafe is breaking entirely new ground and as they are literally writing a new decentralized internet from scratch. An estimate is based on past experience. But if you are doing something entirely new there is no past experience on which to base an estimate. Furthermore Maidsafe have to write the entire thing at once and release all in one go unlike other tech projects that can just release patch updates. Maidsafe can’t just release a first draft and then fix things later.
I completely agree with you but as all said “you can give time frame to something which is already done or some similar work is done to get a baseline”.
Maidsafe is working on a totally new area, for example “how would you log in if there is no centralized server?” Can you give a time frame regarding how much time you or your team would need to accomplish it? Well you need to try various options which would take time but cant be sure how much.
I was worried too but eventually I saw that the work done is much more than one can wish for and thus it would be done as soon they finish it. In a project like this one giving time frame and not finishing it within that just makes the investors relentless.
If you still want to make a time scale just look at the past work and make an educated guess. Alpha 1 to Alpha 2 took a little more than a year so Alpha 3, 4 and Beta may take another 3-5 at most. Its my best guess.
Except MaidSafe’s trajectory is probably more exponential than linear.
Upward or downward?
Well it has delivered outstanding results in 2017 for long term holders and I expect this will continue . I see nothing wrong in expressing that, unless the mods disagree😇
Tesla is an example.
Sanju, interesting point, say for example that it did take 3-5 years to get to beta, that would concern me as by then I think the project may have missed the boat. With the loss of net neutrality I am expecting others will look at a new internet and I would expect it to be decentralized away for telecoms companies so should fit in well with something like this project.
Actually my guess is that it won’t take that long, I think we may see alpha 4 in 2018.
I am not sure you can really say that the project has delivered the rise in price of its tokens other than indirectly. What if the project was now at Alpha 3 and the price had dropped by 50% since the start of 2017 would you still be happy that it had delivered in 2017?
I am not criticising you as its perfectly valid view but the token price but its not really an indication of project progress more a measure of market/holder sentiment.
And to any quick crypto profit seekers who made it down to the bottom of this thread, yes, the real profits are here, and yes, you’ll have to wait indefinitely
I personally feely quite happy with the idea of: who cares when it’s ready, as long as they make it as absolutely wonderful as they can.
2018 is too much optimistic. I know I am giving a long timeline but I am taking about the complete product not the beta. Even if we reach Alpha 4 in 2018, Beta would take another few months at least and the team has long list of plans in Beta phase to make the network as secure as possible. Some including some hacking session. So as per my guess beta phase would take another 1 year to reach to the final product.
I don’t know about others but I would definitely be with the team. I am with them till I get the final release.
Personally, I started investing in crypto since May/June 2017 and Maid is one of my first investments. I have bought at 17-18k satoshi so you can imagine how much I would have earned if I invested in other projects.
As I do plenty of research so identifying a good coin is not tough. Bought Neo at $6, EOS at $0.63, BNB at $2, ETH at $250 and plenty more. Still my half of portfolio consists of Maid. I know I am making some losses in terms of other currency but small losses does not matter for greater cause.
If I am not wrong most of the people here are not to make huge profit but to change the world. David did not start to make huge gain, when he had the idea crypto world was not even present.
And all the investors have high hope too. The coin is backed up by some real life application thus the value is expected to increase. A little gain never hurts
In Buffett’s term “No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.” and “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
Cryptomarket is nothing but a high paced stock market from a trader’s perspective.
I only deal with what is, dealing with what could have been would leave me bald
I for one am eager, and patiently waiting to make a huge profit, but only after this project is able to change the world!