2530000 pre-orders in less than 48 hours. Say $350 a month per car that won’t be spent on oil or gas. These cars have motors rated for a million miles so figure 15 years use for many- that’s only 216000 miles at 1200 miles a month over that period. Figure $5.00 a gallon gas. Figure an average of 22 mpg for the equivalent ICE car- remember some would be low efficiency truck SUV etc. that don’t get bought. That’s 16 billion dollars loss for the oil and gas industry using the 2010 global oil and gas revenues of 969.5 billion which is a nice midpoint between the 2009 low and the 2013 high for their revenue. Assume that some pre-orders will not result in purchases but assume that there will be replacement preorders and many more pre-orders coming even if only 50% of those currently making deposits actually complete the purchase- I think it will be higher based on almost %50 of those deposits came before anyone had seen the car or knew the specifics. I don’t buy the nonsense about the credits. Musk estimates that the average purchase will be $42000, that means they just got a 250 million dollar deposit on 10 billion in customer pledged revenue. The car will probably produce $63000 in fuel savings over its life time and pay and more than pay for itself with savings. Its battery changes will be much less than the cost of maintenance on an ICE engine car also more losses to the oil and gas industry there.
Now there was about 1/7 of that 63000 that some might try to say would accrue back to the gas or even coal industry. I don’t see it. Most of these buyers are either doing no cost down meter reversing solar and over those 15 years more will do cost shifting battery backed up solar and of course wind and utility solar will continue to eat into the no profit future for oil, gas and coal.
Each of these bs fossil fuel industries faces a total no profit future of nothing but losses and red. This is a perfect time to ban lobbying of any kind. At least kick out the oil, gas, and coal trolls as a first step and shift their subsidies to the green side, beyond a back up role they present a threat to our security and are surely a conflict interest.