SafeCoin value at launch [Speculation]

[justin]

BTC continues trending down and ethereum looking at being the replacement as a economic instrument if successful we probably be using it to purchase safe coin for fiat transfers is my hope.
I am not sure if maidsafe can achieve independents as single product without the use of the man in the middle to process conversion from fiat to safe coin.
I would like to think maidsafe to become widely adopted product that I can go to my local supermarket and purchase safe coin as I do with my prepaid phone credit.
So what could I purchase with my safe coin, Is it only storage, I do not really thinks so, or will I be more interested what can I buy on the network on a safe ebay or a safe steam games site, or a media site or will the whole stock market of some countries be uploaded because of the security.

What is possible for maidsafe network is endless and could become very mainstream and not just like the best version of TOR you have ever seen.

A version 5g mobile phone is on or door step at 50 megabit download speeds, I wonder meshing these devices with our neighbors seems a simple possibility along with wifi routing devices being the node ISP’s and mobile networks could have big competition with maidsafe. I see people using the maidsafe network just to use an Skype type of app. teenager in schools are already using apps on their mobile devices with buying expensive plans.

and yes no one ever thought bitcoin could reach $1500 dollars, so safecoin to reach $100 each we will see a whole new maidsafe with people buying safe gigabyte or safe terabyte as a commodity. 4.5 billions safe coins maybe not enough.

[polpolrene]

The great thing with Safecoin is that the SAFE Network will adjust to whatever the price is. So even if the price goes to $1 per Safecoin, the reward for farming will go down. Also the price to “open an account” will adjust as far as I know. So if you just want to use Safecoin to PUT data on the network and to pay some tips to the maker of a great App, you can. No need to get involved in the markets, just run a Vault for some time, earn some Safecoin and give-what-you-get. Do you wanna speculate with the coins? Use it to trade like you’re a hedgfund? Go ahead, it won’t hurt the network.

[piluso]

I think that the full potential based on the scenario of full disruption on the industries I mentioned before, it is at least 20.5 USD per SafeCoin.

(…and this is without considering the extra demand that the app market and its eventual usage as medium of exchange for goods and services)

[Krekc]

@Artiscience

but gladly you are here to enlighten me.

You’re welcome.

@Artiscience

Actually there is nothing in the definition that you link that opposes to what I said. Funny, isn´t it?

And I quote:
4. conjectural consideration of a matter; conjecture or surmise: a report based on speculation rather than facts.

@Artiscience

Why would that even matter? I am not blaming dumpers to somewhat cleaning out investors. I highlighted that whatever some here are longing for (BONANZA!) has negative effects to the project, since it attracts those who want to make money out of money and deters those who want to become part of it longterm.

I saw those threads in many crypto"communities". Always reminded me of group masturbation

A large price increase would attract attention from a lot of people. Bitcoin got the same attention when the price spiked and the attention also did them a lot of good it seems. Sure some people will see the price spike and volatility as a negative and stay away from the coin. But there will also be people that look further than just the coin and the price of it and they will realize the potential the network has and start contributing. I’m not saying that is what definitely is going to happen, but it’s a possibility just as your scenario is a possibility.

Let the Chinese farmer enlighten you

https://youtu.be/OX0OARBqBp0

Anyway let’s just agree to disagree, because we could go on like this and we better focus on something that actually matters.

[happybeing]

@Poker26

I’m only saying that 100% of the price is in hands of the Maidsafe team. As they actually regulate the speed of issuing the rest of safecoins (90%), both network generated and distributed among developers. So assume 1) sfc “at launch” rises to $1, The Team immediately awarded some “very promising” dev companies with 1bn sfc and the price drops back to $0.02:)

This is not how it works. The team have no means to issue Safecoin, only the network can do this: a) to reward farmers for the resources they provide, and b) to reward publishers and app developers according to the usage of their content/app.

This is done automatically according to an algorithm.

[Poker26]

Thank you! I’ve missed that point!

[Artiscience]

@Krekc

Let the Chinese farmer enlighten you

…and when the next day the Safecoin price would jump to 10000% all the neighbors came round that evening and said: oh that´s great, isn´t it? And he said: yeah, actually that´s REALLY great and exactly what I hoped! ka-ching!

Really enlightening how you try to turn the “hey, I think it will be worth a bazzillion times more than now” circle jerk into a senseful “conversation”. btw. beside the fact that a definition of speculation that contains the word itself is really kind of amusing, “rather than facts” actually means that facts are secondary, not that a speculative statement is the same as guessing without rational argument (which it isn´t). However, you are absolutely right that this conversation would senselessly go on and on and on, so let´s focus on something that actually matters, like the “value at launch” - very important issue.

[Krekc]

@Artiscience

However, you are absolutely right that this conversation would senselessly go on and on and on, so let´s focus on something that actually matters, like the “value at launch” - very important issue.

You seem to spend an awful lot of time in a thread discussing something that you apparently don’t find important and on top of that you don’t have anything constructive to add either. You obviously only posted something to annoy people and to bait them into a reaction. Shame on me for taking that bait.

[riddim]

HAHAHA a man told me this story some months ago - and he looks nearly like the old chinese farmer in this video!

[piluso]

@Seneca what do you think?

[Seneca]

I think speculators will jump on board during the launch period, causing a lot of volatility but on average a higher price than what we see right now. This will truly start when test-SafeCoin is rolled out.

After actual SafeCoin launch, the synergy of the farming rate algorithm and the upload price algorithm will have considerable influence on the price. We need to hit the sweetspot with them, if there’s over-issuance we may get an inflationary spiral, if too little is issued we’ll get stuck with significant wealth disparity and low SafeCoin user base growth.

[joelfinn]

@Seneca do you have any rough projections as to when test SafeCoin will be rolled out?

My instinct was that it would be late this year or early next year from what I have seen.

[Token]

If i’m correct they’re planning the next sprint from DEV Bundle 2 right now. If I remember correct the next sprint will stabilize the released installers and the sprint after that will implement the features from DEV Bundle 2 (see the roadmap). One sprint will take about 1 or 2 weeks. They might need more sprints to finish all the features, so I think somewhere between begin or half oktober?

When DEV Budle 2 is finished we can use the following features:

• Testing safecoin: Farming rate completion enabling measurement of algorithms
• Farming attempt (farm safecoins for GET requests)
• UTP Communication - enabling addition of community run vaults to the network
• App Launcher

[Melvin]

Latest on planning what I’ve seen is this:

@dirvine

Everyone, this is the start and open development remember so this is pre stabilisation sprint (in planning start next week for 1-2 weeks max). We will release the Win then OSX installers with a few days between them even after stabilisation (and that is the shiny new network for us to test to destruction before messaging then test-safecoin, a sprint each).

from MaidSafe Dev Update :safe: 31st August 2015 - #2 by dirvine

[Token]

So first (pre) stabilizing → Messaging → test Safecoin (1 sprint each)?

[Melvin]

Not sure how long testing to destruction will take actually, but I think the features (messaging and test safecoin) will take 1 sprint each, according to David’s quote above.

and that is the shiny new network for us to test to destruction

[Luke]

Every investor has taken a massive risk by putting their hard earned cash into MaidSafecoin. Even now, as the first green shoots of the network push up from the dirt there still a massive degree of uncertainty about what will happen when the very cool ideas being developed here meet the crazy variables the real world is sure to present.

I’d be surprised if anyone would have invested, with such long odds, without sharing the ideals of privacy, security and freedom which are inherent to the SAFE network. Without this bunch of mad and idealistic risk takers we’d be nowhere near where we are today: on the brink of a decentralised and private internet! If investors got huge returns on their original stake then awesome, they deserve it for helping to breathe life into this potentially very important project.

Anyhoo, back to the original question - what will Safecoin be worth at launch… There is really no economic rule which one can really apply here, but I’ll throw some interesting ideas/numbers which influenced my finger in the air prediction:

Number of Tor users: [around 2 million a day][1]

Number of bitcoin users: [around 2 million-ish][2] (prob a bit under that I reckon)

Number of Spideroak users: [around 1 million][3]

These are some low end numbers I think ‘we’ should be aiming at I think and totally achievable in pretty short order if this is what many of us think it might be.

For higher end numbers I’d be looking at the number of Facebook, whatsapp and instagram type numbers (in the hundreds of millions of users basically).

It’s worth noting that Safecoin is very different to other crypto currencies. It’s attached to a potential runaway madman (the network itself and all the apps). Your Safecoin will directly relate to a finite portion of storage and usability on the network, so in an odd way it’s a bit like owning a certain % of shares of the network (as you would a company), not just an arbitrary % of available coins. At least that’s how it works in my mind.

This iteration of the idea might have some fundamental floor none of us is wise enough to see from here. Or it just might not get the exposure/adoption it could for any number of reasons, but anyhoo (for a second time), and back to the the original question (for the second time too)…

I’m going for $0.06 by 25th December 2015 (not my ‘launch’ guess but better than nothing), and $0.71 by December 25th 2016, $2.23 (10,000%) by December 25th 2017

*n.b. never take investment advice from a dreamer
[1]: Users – Tor Metrics
[2]: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2vuvxs/estimated_number_of_bitcoin_users/
[3]: SpiderOak – Medium

[OkusPokus]

@happybeing

This is done automatically according to an algorithm.

Where is that algorithm ? Let me guess, It’s still to be decided.

Poker26 is right.
The fact that this algo wasn’t present at IPO and is still not fully clarified to this day is why I think nobody but the core dev should in their right mind invest in SafeCoin and expect a ROI.

[happybeing]

@OkusPokus

The fact that this algo wasn’t present at IPO and is still not fully clarified to this day is why I think nobody but the core dev should in their right mind invest in SafeCoin and expect a ROI

That’s not entirely true, the algorithm was described in the white paper at the time of the IPO and has been discussed openly since. It can’t “exist” until coded into the network, but otherwise it is quite well defined, but sensibly to be finalised as part of the network testing. Maybe at that point you’ll want to invest, but oh wait, Safecoin is 2x IPO, 3x IPO, who knows x IPO.

[OkusPokus]

@happybeing

the algorithm was described in the white paper at the time of the IPO and has been discussed openly since. It can’t “exist” until coded into the network, but otherwise it is quite well defined

I just re-read the “Token System on SAFE Network” at https://github.com/maidsafe/Whitepapers/blob/master/Project-Safe.md and have a feeling most of it has been changed and will change again when it come out.

Could you point to me where this has been talked and also maybe point to me the last / most complete version of this ? https://github.com/maidsafe/maidsafe_vault/blob/1b3d1bb8681c64827a5d3fd765e9235ae8ccae37/docs/safecoin_farming_rate.md

Thank you very much.