My estimate we’ll see a market top cap of ~$50 mil which means $12c(10 eurocents)~50k satoshis per coin.
Should stabilize at 20k-30k satoshis afterwards for a while.
It could easily go to $100 mil market cap a little bit later after people dump their presale tokens and software stabilizes … so medium term I hope to see $25c
like a few others have said , around the 50k satoshi a coin mark i reckon . it might advance further completely depends on the news and it might not stay too long up their till dropping back down and stabilizing or consolidating or whatever.
There are some coins in the history of crypto that have risen 2400% in a matter of days or over a week in their history , litecoin, doge, darkcoin . even bitshares had an impressive rise at 1 time. i don’t however think this will happen on release but at a later date once things hae developed and people have started getting use to it and perhaps news of high profile people joining the network and contributing
remember also there will be a small period of 1-2 days were prices on poloniex will wildly become inflated as people pull out coins from poloniex to convert them and transfer them over to the safenetwork, some people will be keeping their coins behind just for this, as the interest grows from the impending swap and release, more and more people will be interested in buying the coin while at that point more and more people will be withdrawing and putting them into safenet, now for the first few days of maidsafe purchasing on the actual network itself will be semi difficult for the first day or so as things get initialized .
so what to expect?
a crazy price action that sends it high above actual market value for a short time and then one the network has fully changed over and as it does a slow decline in price as things normalize again and easy access to purchasing is there to use.
actual market value meaning its a bare bones experimental network, while i myself have high expectation and hopes for this project and have for over a year now , it doesn’t take away the fact that once launched it is a bare bones network and value and purchasing will be mainly speculatory
My thought is that value of safecoin is absolutely arbitrary and non-predictable at launch as 1) there will be no launch as it is but “feature complete” 2) the Maidsafe team can assign 1 safecoin as a reward for 1Mb, 100Mb, 1Gb, 100Gb of GETs absolutely arbitrary:) 3) safecoin divisibility discussion is still open 4) currently released maidsafecoins cover only 10% of all safecoins, and 15% of future emission will be arbitrary given to the developers by the same Maidsafe team:)
so how could you even try to calculate with all this in mind???
access for most to the network technically = launch
not really , the network will decide with algorithms in place that will constantly be adapting to the free space on the network that is available.
safecoin divisibility is in discussion mainly by people who have zero control or say on it, David has comments many weeks ago about the intention to already have divisibility in a future release . a year or so down the line i think he said. how does this affect coin price at launch?
we are speculating price at launch, how does the coin distribution for the next 10 years mean to the coins in circulation exactly at launch? they will have no effect on the network until they are mined, 99% of them will be mined 2-3 months after launch*
launch being access to the network and it being actually live and functioning
To provide some value to the discussion: economical factors will decide how much a SFC will cost, so if you speculate about price, remember that it is utter nonsense unless you back up your estimation with some sort of economical rationality for offer and demand.
Gold digger thread? Do you see any women trying to hook up with rich men here?
Also the way you worded your post makes it read like people shouldn’t back up their estimation with some some of economical rationality (double negative).
I think the whole idea behind speculation is that you don’t have to back it up with cold hard facts or anything. And what’s wrong with people wanting to make some money from their investment in Safecoin anyways?
Personally I agree with @gohan00760. There will probably be a spike after the launch after which the price will drop a bit and start to climb steadily as the network grows and more people start using it. The fact that Maidsafe wants to make a living providing services for the network and being paid in Safecoin (David said as much in the Sovryn Tech interview) makes me believe that they expect the price of Safecoin to increase considerably in the future.
Obviously it’s hard to say if that will be 50 cents, 1 dollar, 10 dollars, etc. It all depends on the adoption rate and probably on the price of bitcoin as well.
Kind off. I see people who are obviously only in for money. Who else would “hope” for a jump of 10000%? And yes, those people exploit the relation between users on the network. It doesn´t even matter whether you are the one who cashes out or others - with speculations like these people are conjuring up the next pump & dump. If there is anything good in terms of value then stagnation or a slow and steady rise.
Well actually speculation without any facts is just dreaming. Instread you could discuss relevant factors i.e. how many people could start farming, how many would want to PUT things onto the network.
SOME money? Do you call 10000% SOME money? That´s anything but greed. Besides, I could also ask what´s wrong with pumping and dumping? It´s the good right of people to make money from people who seriously believe in an idea, isn´t it?
Why do you assume they are obviously ONLY in it for the money? I wouldn’t mind making a quick buck myself, but I also see the promise of the network and will be contributing my bandwidth and disk space whether the safecoin gained by doing so actually makes me money or not. I guess it’s easier though if everything is just black or white right?
If you look up the definition of speculation you will find it’s actually the opposite of being factual.
Sure a 10000% gain is not SOME money, but still nobody is forcing anyone to pay a certain price. By now most people on exchanges have experienced their fair share of pumps and dumps so they know the risk involved with trading (alt) coins. Nobody is putting a gun to their heads telling them to buy a coin at a certain price. I’m pretty sure that people who seriously believe in the idea have already positioned themselves pretty well at the current prices or will try to make their safecoin by farming or contributing to the network in other ways.
Economic rationality will take 6-12 months after people start using the live network to become relevant. Until then the value will be mostly determined by psychological factors, meaning speculation from both actual speculators and also from users deciding whether to purchase a load now for actual use or just buy what they need as they go along.
Why would I assume that? Maybe because I think that someone who hopes for 10000% growth is led by greed and the rest just follows. I don´t claim that to be true, but I can barely find any other reasons, why people “hope” for numbers like these. If you´re in for the idea behind the concept then you really don´t care about MAKING money, you likely hope not to lose it. So, yes with regard to numbers like 10000% things really look black and white to me, but gladly you are here to enlighten me.
Actually there is nothing in the definition that you link that opposes to what I said. Funny, isn´t it? Of course, you can claim “I hope/believe tomorrow pigs can fly” is a speculation and not just “guessing” or “hallucinating”, but most people will find this use of words odd and expect some sort of “because…” that would explain your rationality. I repeat, speculation without any sort of reasoning is anything but dreaming.
You´re rIght, it´s not SOME gain, it´s a SH*TLOAD of gain.
Why would that even matter? I am not blaming dumpers to somewhat cleaning out investors. I highlighted that whatever some here are longing for (BONANZA!) has negative effects to the project, since it attracts those who want to make money out of money and deters those who want to become part of it longterm.
I saw those threads in many crypto"communities". Always reminded me of group masturbation
Speculative pricing by definition is based on conjectures.
Secondly, you are assuming that my wish of being valuated 10K% is due to manipulative pumping. You should realize that you are creating a false dichotomy here.
The third glaring option that you are omitting with your confirmation bias is that the fundamentals of MaidSafe are very strong and yet extremely undervalued currently.
You have to consider that MaidSafe is disrupting several industries and it can change the internet economy as a whole, it is the ultimate paradigm shift.
Computer Security companies, Backuping services, Hosting, CDNs, cloud storage, among others will become obsolete the day SafeNet goes live.
The Computer Security industry is worth $60 billion dollars.
The Disaster and Backup Recovery industry is $5.8 billion dollars and it is anticipated to grow 20% the next 5 years. (There has been a 300% growth since 2007)
The CDN industry is worth $4.2 billion dollars
Cloud storage industry is currently worth $18 billion dollars
In total we are talking about a $88 billion dollars from this sampling alone.
Let’s take this as a reference and what would happen when all these industries become obsolete and all that money gets poured into SafeCoins?
It is an educated guess, but 10K% is quite conservative.
It is a bit of fun for investors and traders, To be fair we do not have to be righteous snobs because one has other goals and motives for maidsafe network. If someone thinks it may be worth 10k % more they maybe correct or wrong whom knows.
Yeah, and what do you think makes the difference between conjectures and mere guessing, hm?
Actually it´s a false dilemma (I guess that´s what you are referring to) that I assume that, since I never stated it. I mainly suggested that this is about greed, but yeah, that´s only my opinion. Can´t help.
I love that actually - “undervalued”. Heard that often about basically every cryptocurrency and beyond. Fact is: “value” is not objective. Calling something undervalued is speculating on price by itself. Whenever people call something “undervalued” they are not describing, they are claiming to know about the future.
That´s false as well. The services that you name become obsolete as soon as people decide to switch services. They won´t do that easily and certainly not the day SafeNet goes live. You are mixing theory with practice. In theory Betamax was better, but VHS won. I don´t reject the potential though and actually I think the guessing turned more into a speculation with the argumentation that you provide in your post, but you seem to miss the point that I didn´t criticise the numbers, but the way people talk about them. You asked for peak and arguments, you claimed a peak on your own without any reasons, just stating that you hoped that it would reach those numbers. @gohan00760 and @Poker26 were actually the first to present some reasons. Also, you appear to believe that SAFE will be the only technology out there to change the current market. There is any reason to believe that.
I’m only saying that 100% of the price is in hands of the Maidsafe team. As they actually regulate the speed of issuing the rest of safecoins (90%), both network generated and distributed among developers. So assume 1) sfc “at launch” rises to $1, The Team immediately awarded some “very promising” dev companies with 1bn sfc and the price drops back to $0.02:)
Or the price “at launch” after tons of sprints, delays, porting to the newest langs etc falls to, say, $0.0002, then The Team will introduce the algo with 0.000001 new sfc being generated for 100Gb of get requests, and the price skyrockets immediately:)