Projected growth rate of the maidsafe network


#1

OK so obviously there is no way (especially at such an early juncture, and with such a new concept) to predict the growth rate of the maidsafe network, but for a bit of fun I looked at a few numbers associated to growth curves of other ‘ventures’ in the tech sphere:

bitcoin users 1.2 million users* in 5 years
facebook 1.23 billion users** in 10 years
whatsapp 450 million*** users in 4 years

My highly uneducated and ultimately meaningless guess is that there will be 1 million accounts by this Christmas, and 1 billion within 3 years of launch (I am an optimist:)

So, what does everyone reckon the growth will curve will look like for maidsafe, and is anyone else prepared share their guesstimate?

*https://moneero.com/web/blog/post/we-forget-bitcoin-is-one-million-users-young
**http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/feb/04/facebook-10-years-mark-zuckerberg
***http://www.quora.com/WhatsApp-Messenger/How-many-users-does-WhatsApp-have-worldwide


#2

I don’t even know the release of the network will happen before Christmas, hope so though.

1 Million users: End Of 2015
1 billion users: Mid 2016


#3

I’m thinking the curve will be shallower for a while, while the network shakes down and proves out. Maybe even a couple years. After that, with a reliable network and no big infrastructure projects needed and app build-out and builders grooved in, the adoption curve could be nearly vertical. Say two years out = 1.5 million. 5 years out = 3 billion.

Is this a betting pool?:innocent:


#4

I guess it depends on what apps are available at launch and to what degree things are both ‘robust and ready’. I’d imagine that a simple and secure messaging/social network could get make pretty big inroads where more oppressive regimes exist in particular.

The cool thing is that there will be different incentives for different groups of people, from those looking to earn a little from farming, those wanting cheaper/more secure servers, those wanting more private and secure currency and ultimately the endless apps built on the maidsafe structure.

Btw I like love it that the most pessimistic projection so far is 3 billion users in 5 years :slight_smile:


#5

If safecoin transactions work like we think they will, I predict the network will grow even without a ton of apps online. Mining and transactions will be HUGE IMHO. I don’t want to put any numbers on it yet though.


#6

Hmmmm I don’t really like projections

Let’s focus on the first million and what we will do to get them on board.

  • Maidsafe preinstalled on OSes
  • Kickstarter projects
  • Download lottery (Download Maidsafe NOW and 1 of the 1million will receive 1million Safecoins after 1 year (you got to let them try it)) (I would donate 1000 Safecoins just to see this happen)
  • Promo on conferences
  • Brutal HARDSALES PITCH to Netflix ceo
  • Brutal HARDSALES PITCH to manufacturers of Internet of things tech giants

I know not everybody is a salesman, but you can promote this to your friends and family and so on


#7

I found a model that I have been using to predict network adoption rates: http://jordi.pro/bass/index.php?show[prediction]=1. If you use the drop downs to select industry, introduction year, innovation (I set to +3) and imitation (I set to standard) then select ‘predict now’ then ‘view data’ the model gives the following result (the percentages being of the total population of Internet users) 2014 - 0% 2015 -1.09% 2016 - 2.71% 2017 - 5.03%…etc… I think forecasting is fun but it should be recognised that you are guaranteed to be completely wrong.


#8

http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/
So we are talking 2.9 billion is 100% of internet users as of today. 2.9 billion seems kind of high???
but let’s do some math on that number anyway…

Around 32M by end of 2015 if my math and this adoption rate is anywhere close to being right?
around 79M by end of 2016
around 148M by end of 2017
around 557M by end of 2020
1.9B by end of 2025

I don’t believe this includes more adoption of people online either. This is assuming 2.9 is consistent year to year and we know that is not the case.


Isn't maid safe just a more expensive version of the internet?
#9

Pure speculation for sure but fun to stop and think about such things. Time will prove us all wrong :slight_smile:


#10

I don’t know if it will ever reach a billion but hundreds of millions might be possible 10 years from now. We wont see a million users in the first few years and then if it does take off it will be exponential.