Project SAFE Predictions!

What month/year will we launch the SAFE Network? Nov 2015
How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch? 200Gb
How much will 1 Safecoin be worth at Launch? $1.00
Will the first killer App be a Game or Social Network? Decentralized Exchanges and Marketplaces
Which celebrity will be the first to use/endorse the SAFE Network? Steve Gibson

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Interesting to see how the predictions change over time, particularly re: release date. I hope I won´t open this thread in a year and still see +3month-predictions :wink:

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Predictions are hard, and especially about the future, you mean?

By launch time I hope to come here and make a list of worst predictions.

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You seem to have a general bias against all type of speculation, but there is speculation and speculation.

Predictions on dates, times and target prices will always be almost close to impossible to predict.
There are other types of predictions based on trend, extrapolations, fundamental analysis and/or analysis on strategic necessities which are quite convergent in nature.

Don’t you find funny that economists and chart readers are so wrong, while science fiction writers and scientists were so close to describe how our lives would be in 100 years?

There are the ones wasting money and time doing useless Technical Analysis, and the ones consistently making money over time with Fundamental Analysis such as Warren Buffet.

In both cases are correctly classified as conjectures/speculation. But only one of them have higher chances of being right.

No, i don´t. I have a problem with speculation based on thin air, yes, but that´s it. In this post I was just saying that interestingly there is a moving wall of predictions. You don´t have to find that interesting, I do.

No, but I find it funny to make such a comparison. Chart readers are often wrong and often right - because there is a prediction for basically anything. There were predictions about the coming of the subprime crisis when the majority said that anyone saw it coming. Afterwards they were hyped as visionaries - I don´t think that either perspective is right. The same goes for sci-fi. What was so right about Planet of the Apes? Star Wars? Are those Laser swords already shipped? The truth is, often quoted sci-fi novels such as 1984 were not visionary in the sense that they looked into the future - much rather they looked at foundations of the present and drew a line.

But yeah, as I said, I was just pointing to the funny fact of a “moving wall”. I think the Maidsafe teams are the only one´s who can really tell WHEN and IF they are able to finish. There´s a (good) reason not to call final deadlines and focus on sprints. If I´d make a guess then I´d say the team will finish coding the core not earlier than +9 month based on prior shiftings of deadlines and if it´s true that David didn´t have a day off in the last 10 years I hope he and his team take at least 1 month of this time to recover from permanent coding.

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Many of the predictions were heavily influenced on signals and predictions from David Irvine himself, so no, even they can’t. Complex IT projects are simply extremely unpredictable, and people here are excited about this project so wishful thinking plays a role for sure.

My current prediction would be a January/February SafeCoin release, but I should probably add at least 3 months to that to account for surprises.

Edit: I’m tempted to think “it’s different this time” because of Rust and the new workflow, but the fundamental nature of software development is still the same. So yeah, I think we should still take into account unforeseeable delays.

Edit2: Delays aren’t necessarily bad though. There have been multiple delays in SAFE’s development in the past years due to new ideas that significantly improved the base concept.

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The construction of the Berlin International Airport, a high rated prestige project starting in 2006, was timed for 2011 and about a year earlier they shifted the final date for 6 months because things were not working out as they should. Since then there have been more and more shiftings. The latest prediction is that the airport won´t open before 2021. That´s how things are: it looks as if you were just finishing the final parts and boom, turns out that the whole thing doesn´t work and you need to not only go back to start but even far behind that since cleaning up can be even more stressful.

This thread is a wish thread. Has anything to do with reality, and I agree with you that my statement was incorrect because sometimes even the team doesn´t know when and how to finish. That´s the way it is and wishful thinking won´t change that.

(EDIT: I might add: and there is nothing wrong with wishful thinking. I just find it bit funny.)

(EDIT2

Right, but one has to be careful with focussing too much on improvement since it can delay completion indefinitely. The perfect product is a product that is never going to be released)

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Starting over a code base from scratch is a whole lot easier than demolishing an airport.

Just Ctrl+N

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You understood that this was just a metaphor for complex projects, don´t you?

P.S.: Starting over is LOT more than CTRL+N

hahaha - no - ctrl+n is enough for the start :stuck_out_tongue:

What month/year will we launch (testnet 3) the SAFE Network? Christmas 2015
How many Gb of storage will 1 Safecoin buy at Launch (testnet 3)? 7.7 GB
1 Safecoin be worth when testnet 2 finished? $0,05
1 Safecoin be worth at Launch (testnet 3)? $0,07
1 Safecoin be worth 2 years after launch? $0,77
1 Safecoin be worth 5 years after launch? $3,50
Killer App? Video Streaming
Which celebrity will be the first to use/endorse the SAFE Network? the facebook guy … forgot his name xD

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I thought we weren’t doing testnets anymore?

you are asking difficult things here Oo … to be honest i lost track on this topic … i’ll just wait till i get news about the testnets … some kind of testnet is necessary i think … but how many testnets and how long … no clue …

Yep, the testnets were part of the “old” road map.

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Great to know the code is so safe and developers so assured that running on testnet is deemed unnecessary. I move my prediction for GA forward by 2 months! (Just kidding, my prediction was September 2015.)

At what stage will coins & data become “real”, then?

What currency do the current LAN-only vaults use? None?

June 2015 is certainly a conservative estimation…ah wait… :wink:

I think you are confusing a change in terminology with a change in the quantity and diligence of testing.

Given your technical ability this seems deliberately disingenuous, and damaging to confidence in the team.

If that’s what you think, please explain your position and reasoning so it can be responded to.

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Just couple days ago I said there will be 2 testnets, then I was corrected that there won’t be no testnets, now I’m asked why I am saying there won’t be no testnets.

I have no new opinion on testnet (or whatever it’s called according to new terminology). I always considered there should be at least two (one with fake coins and fake data, another with fake coins and real data).

Perhaps it would be more helpful to:

  • avoid making unnecessary terminology changes that cause confusion, and
  • make necessary terminology changes to terms that cause confusion (e.g. DNS, NFS)
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Someone’s having a laugh :smile:
Where I come from: “Just couple days ago I said there will be 2 testnets, then I was corrected that there won’t be no testnets, now I’m asked why I am saying there won’t be no testnets.” translates to - Just couple days ago I said there will be 2 testnets, then I was corrected that there will be testnets, now I’m asked why I am saying there will be testnets.

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@janitor,

Means “will be”[quote=“janitor, post:62, topic:3139”]

  • make necessary terminology changes to terms that cause confusion (e.g. DNS, NFS)
    [/quote]

Agree.

Of course it is. That’s why I don’t pay much attention to it.

Interesting if it were a betting pool, though. That, plus more people participating might start to get interesting. Even uneducated guesses over a large number of people can have uncanny accuracy.

Here, the wishful thinking factor cripples us. So I stopped trying to augur it.

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