Some amateur (and stolen) philosophy while we wait: Does every week without a testnet increase the probability of it being this week? Or reduce it?
I was thinking about the gulf between crypto world thinking (more time goes by without a product, less chance of there being one) and Safe community thinking (we must be close!), and how it's a bit like the turkey example that Taleb uses to show the different sides of the 'market crash' belief systems.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, best-selling author of The Black Swan, told the story of a turkey who is fed by the farmer every morning for 1,000 days. Eventually the turkey comes to expect that every visit from the farmer means more good food. After all, that’s all that has ever happened so the turkey figures that’s all that can and will ever happen. But then Day 1,001 arrives. It’s two days before Thanksgiving and when the farmer shows up, he is not bearing food, but an ax. The turkey learns very quickly that its expectations were catastrophically off the mark. And now Mr. Turkey is dinner.
Taleb’s advice: “Let’s not be turkeys.”
The lesson of our doomed turkey illustrates the central problem of unexpected, “black swan” events (or in this case “black turkey,” I guess). We simply do not have enough data to reach empirical conclusions about how a risk will manifest itself and to what degree. “Just because you never died before, doesn’t make you immortal,” said Taleb.
We have the same problem I guess. Incomplete info leads to some guessing that a product will never come, and others guessing that one is imminent. 2 movies on 1 screen, as Scott Adams would say (in the days when he was bearable).
I seem to have likened Safenet to a black swan though.