I think an underappreciated aspect here is expectations of future appreciation of the token. Bitcoin demonstrated this and the importance of economic incentives to a successful and growing network.
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Interesting thing I noticed with Bitcoin (and expect to be same with Safe) is there is some psychological thing that tells people mining your own crypto is better that buying it. Even when the cost to mine coins is higher at the end, people like to mine their coins.
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It isn’t just psychological. There are real benefits:
- No need for inconvenience of doing KYC at exchange
- No risk of your KYC info being stolen from exchange
- No counterparty risk during the buying process
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I guess some do. But I have also heard “it made my computer fans run full blast, so I stopped” -stories. I have never mined myself. I tried to mine Monero once, but I don’t remember why I didn’t go on with it. It might be that I just couldn’t set it up, or maybe it made my machine run hot.
Filecoin has just passed 2 EiB of storage space!
Filecoin launched with about 581 PiB of storage on 2020-10-16. 38 days later on 2020-11-23 it reached 1 EiB by adding another 443 PiB, which works out to about 87 days per EiB.
Today on 2021-01-21 it’s another 58 days after reaching 1 EiB, so that’s 33% faster to add the second EiB.
Overall the rate of storage being added since filecoin launched is (1024 PiB + 443 PiB) / (96.5 days) = 15.2 PiB per day. 648 TiB per hour. 11 TiB per minute. 185 GiB per second. Pretty impressive.
There’s currently 1150 miners.
The top five miners have capacity of 74.2 PiB, 72.6, 51.8, 41.7, 35.0.
Filecoin storage cost is currently $0.071/GB/year, 3.86x cheaper than AWS S3.
Average deal period is 313.37 days
Over the last 2500 deals 58,012 GB has been stored.
The total data stored on filecoin network is 3.3808 PiB, so about 0.165% of available storage is being used.
1 filecoin currently costs $22.23 for a market cap of $995,696,363
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I am interested in the following information on how it will change over time:
Speculation VS Usage
Usage:
3 806 442 GB / 96.5 days = 39 444 GB/day
$0.071/GB/year / 365 days = $0,000194521 GB/day
39 444 GB/day * $0,000194521 GB/day = $7,672686324 Usage/day (Is this possible to be true? Math is not my strength) 
Speculation:
$307 921 998 (Trading Volume 24h today) / $7,672686324 Usage/day = 40 132 228x ratio
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I didn’t check your source figures.
But 0,000194531 should be a . Not a ,
So result should be 7.67225244
Edit.
So you would certainly need to do the speculation sum again using my corrected figure.
Anyhow I’ve just woke, time for coffee.
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To fill 74.2PiB storage is like 2years with 10Gbps upload stream .
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Thanks, I rather asked if my logic was correct and if I really calculated the ratio between the Speculation VS Usage in this way…
In Filecoin there was a need to stake in order to farm, so price isn’t purely a product of speculation (although your point is taken)
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Well, I use the daily trading Volume for the speculation part (not the price), because I think it’s an indicator of that - you have a group of people trying to outdo each other and make more money than the others, for me this is pure speculation.
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I dont claim to be great at math, and I’d only just woke so wasn’t even going to try to get my head around that.
I pointed out the one obvious error I spotted, which would throw your calcs of even if that was the correct way of doing it.
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Sounds ok, it’s an interesting perspective to take.
$7.67 per day sounds right from those calculations.
The ratio is 40,132,228x - to convert to percent it’s 4,013,222,800%
There’s 40M times more speculation than uploading on filecoin. Caveats apply but on the surface the maths seems ok.
I feel like having to pay to download really hinders the desire to upload anything to filecoin. It seems like at this stage given the extremely large amount of spare storage and high amount of speculation filecoin is more of a proof-of-storage-bitcoin-replacement (like chia or burstcoin) than a data storage network
Some places use comma instead of dot for the decimal place
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Ah, ok, its just if you use a comma as opposed to a decimal point, then put that into a calculator its gonna throw you of by a massive amount surely.
How much better do you think it is reasonable to expect to be this ratio for Safe?
For Sia and Storj, for example, this ratio is worse. For 3-4 years, Sia has only 592TB Used Storage and daily trading Volume $17.13M at the moment…
It’s not directly comparable.
For example bitcoin has stored 311 GB but has $66,043,758,807 daily trade volume today.
We wouldn’t compare bitcoin with filecoin in this way because their goals and implementations are too different. Same with filecoin and safe network.
Out of curiosity, is it ‘better’ to have a higher rate of speculation or lower rate of speculation? edit: ah I see with sia you’re saying it’s worse to have a higher amount of speculation.
In my opinion It would be very bad for the Safe Network to have such level of speculation. The high speculation volume of the token will make more people hodl it. This can lead to 2 things:
- the network to grow slowly, which will allow super farms similar to those in Filecoin to take over the network due to their better uptime.
- and it will allow a copy of Safe to grow faster if the copy stimulates the upload of data by allocating part of the monetary inflation for this purpose.
You could be right, but being as storage cost is based on spare space on network im not sure thats true, time will tell.
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I don’t want time to show it. I want us to have a plan of action ready if the network grows slowly.
I would counter that high price will allow us to pay for fast connection and much storage space, therefore lowering storage cost and encouraging uploads.
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