Market Research on market size and growth

Normal “S” curve of technology adoption. A bit early though which means a very flattened “S” curve

I dont think chia has grown at all for 3 mnth personally. If anything it looks like a tiny decline, but nothing really worth mentioning.

Filecoin reached 15 EiB farming capacity yesterday. That’s 42 days to add the most recent EiB of storage capacity.

29.2 PiB being stored.

0-1 EiB after 87 days
1-2 EiB after 58 days
2-3 EiB after 45 days
3-4 EiB after 35 days
4-5 EiB after 26 days
5-6 EiB after 29 days
6-7 EiB after 28 days
7-8 EiB after 21 days
8-9 EiB after 19 days
9-10 EiB after 19 days
10-11 EiB after 17 days
11-12 EiB after 17 days
12-13 EiB after 25 days
13-14 EiB after 38 days
14-15 EiB after 42 days

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https://www.chiaexplorer.com/charts/netspace?period=3m

Chia network size in 3 months has gone from 36457 PiB to 30961 PiB, a drop of ~15%

A little surprising to me after such an incredible first year of growth. This is a steady drop, not just a blip from farming variance. The full history of netspace doesn’t look so bad though!

The price of chia token XCH in the last 3 months has gone from $140 to $80, so that might partially explain the drop in storage?

Looks like about 100K txs per day on the network - source

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Quite a few have lost faith due to price, the database ( local copy of chain ) getting easily corrupted, problems syncing, problems farming, randomness of rewatds etc.

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The price and reward distribution I can understand as being out of your control, but these other things sound like software QA that can (easily?) be fixed. Kinda surprised if they aren’t getting fixed since that’s pretty essential and fixable stuff. Maybe I’m missing some detail about why it’s still an issue.

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I agree, these things shoud be able to be easily fixed, but they dont seem to be happening.
It seems , although i could be wrong, they are more interested in adding new features.

I guess a few farmers having a few issues is not that much of a concern, as theres always enough nodes online to push through transactions.

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Looking at the full history of chia farming, it’s incredible how fast the rise was at the start. From 3EiB in May to 30EiB in July, that’s 10x in 2 months. https://xchscan.com/charts/netspace

Putting it into some real world context, say a photo on your phone is 5MB, then 30EB would store about 6.5 trillion photos, which in 2 months is a rate of 109 billion photos per day or about 1M photos per second.

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I have about 1000 photos in my phone. 30EB would allow 6.5 billion people like me to have all their photos uploaded. Earths population is 7.8 billion, so roughly speaking, everyones photos would just fit in there.

OK, many false assumptions there, everyone is not like me and not everyone in the earth aged between 0 and death, has a smartphone. But to give a scale.

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I think if chia were actually storing personal data as opposed to proofs to obtain rewards the growth would have been very different.

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Filecoin added another 1 EiB of farming capacity in 67 days, going from 15 EiB to 16 EiB, and is clearly slowing down on the growth of farming (still growing but much less quickly).

0-1 EiB after 87 days
1-2 EiB after 58 days
2-3 EiB after 45 days
3-4 EiB after 35 days
4-5 EiB after 26 days
5-6 EiB after 29 days
6-7 EiB after 28 days
7-8 EiB after 21 days
8-9 EiB after 19 days
9-10 EiB after 19 days
10-11 EiB after 17 days
11-12 EiB after 17 days
12-13 EiB after 25 days
13-14 EiB after 38 days
14-15 EiB after 42 days
15-16 EiB after 67 days

Filecoin currently storing about 65 PiB of data.

Chia has gone from 33 EiB to 29 EiB in the last 90 days, so is still in a pretty clear decline of farming, but incredibly huge amount of capacity still there.

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Interestingly Filecoin is hard to utilise, and not just for regular folk. Here is one of the architects of Zcash giving it a whirl yesterday (short thread):

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Yeah, I’ve been following this twitter thread too. I’m relieved to see I’m not the only one who finds Filecoin somewhat unfathomable!

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in regards of useability we are forward, we can access files and upload files with a small executable! only vaults need to run nodes and it is still small!!!

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IDC has said we are seeing a 61% compounded annual growth rate of data and that it will reach 175 zettabytes by 2025


Privacy. Security. Freedom

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Filecoin up to 17 EiB total storage, up from 16 EiB 63 days ago.

0-1 EiB after 87 days
1-2 EiB after 58 days
2-3 EiB after 45 days
3-4 EiB after 35 days
4-5 EiB after 26 days
5-6 EiB after 29 days
6-7 EiB after 28 days
7-8 EiB after 21 days
8-9 EiB after 19 days
9-10 EiB after 19 days
10-11 EiB after 17 days
11-12 EiB after 17 days
12-13 EiB after 25 days
13-14 EiB after 38 days
14-15 EiB after 42 days
15-16 EiB after 67 days
16-17 EiB after 63 days

From https://storage.filecoin.io/:

Filecoin currently storing 97 PiB of data from 4,045,838 deals.

895 unique clients
773 unique providers

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Filecoin is now storing more than 100 PiB, quite a cool milestone. 110 PiB currently stored, see storage.filecoin.io. That’s 13 PiB added in 3 weeks, an average upload rate of about 65000 Mbps (about 7.5 GiB/s).

There’s about 4000 miners. The average rate of receiving data per miner over the past 3 weeks has been about 16 Mbps.

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Big drop just now in filecoin mining capacity, apparently about 500 PiB has left the network…

Has affected fees too, gone from about 100 attoFIL to a peak of 332,000,000 attoFIL (charts reporting this as 0.332 nanoFIL for anyone else wondering about atto!).

Not sure what’s causing this but it’s a lot of storage. Although 500 PiB is only about 3% of the total network resources (currently 17.3 EiB) so not that big of a movement really. And total data stored is only about 100 PiB so… some strange incentives going on I reckon.

Good to know the other side of growth, ie how much can leave in a single hit in real life, not just in theory.

Chart and fee stats from Filfox - Filecoin explorer

2022-07-07_09-28

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Maybe at these prices it’s not worth keeping this storage online?


Privacy. Security. Freedom

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