I can’t and that’s the point, sometimes that irrationality benefits us.
That’s the divergence I love to see for investments, when the market is dumb enough to not able to tell the difference between a rough diamond and a coprolite.
Doesn’t matter if everyone else tells you it is fossilized shit, if you know for a fact that it is a diamond, buy the whole lot.
Sooner or later they will catch up and the prices will get actualized, and we profit from it.
The community is ridden by three things in my view:
Blockchain-centric bias
Cognitive dissonance
Primed with the initial mess with the ICO and Mastercoin.
Even though the most rational ones finally gets excited about MaidSafe, I think it is quite good to not see it overhyped, and certainly after the alpha there has been more eyes on the project, it has reflected on its price and on its “attack”.
Since its inception, it went 331% up and it has been a steady growth.
Yeah you are right, but I wouldn’t say all altcoins are overhyped and have no value.
personally I made my due diligence, and that’s how I came to Maid.
First, I looked for value - and definitely think there is value in the top 10
Bitcoin value = first comer, brand name
Ripple value = an actual net of nodes (banks) with an actual financial interest to rationalize their costs & processes, backed by an efficient protocol.
Monero value = anonymous transactions
Nem = programable
Everything else (Augur, steem…) is niche market on the blockchain which we know does not scale. A niche market has intrinsic value, so even if it does not scale well, as long as it does not intend to reinvent the wheel (ETH), it could work - but it will be capped by the size of the niche.
MAID is the only one in my opinion which could reinvent the wheel AND scale, so that’s where I found the biggest potential and made the largest bet. Besides, it is undervalued for the reasons you mentionned, which for a late investor like me is just plain luck.
ps
number 4) you forgot in the list: the name. that name…
Oh, yeah, I am not saying they are worthless, but because their value is so easy to notice, it is easier to be hyped… and it’s current prices I think they are way over the fundamentals.
Glad you edited that, I was going to say, $1 is an early target for testsafecoin imo. The final SAFEcoin conversion will probably create an epic price bubble. God knows when, but it’ll be big when it comes.
The worst that could happen is Maidsafe lauching Beta and safecoin while the crypto bubble as a whole is bursting with bitcoin back under 1000 and all altcoins in dark red.
The safenetwork release would be a non event, and we would have to wait for real life adoption to boost prices instead of spec alone. In this scenario, Safe coin trades at 0.41$. Coin recycling dynamics weight on prices, and medium term, safecoin price growth looks very sluggish-
That’s March 2019, on a late release.
Another scenario, a more rosy one, would be crypto inflows continue, and we are trading above 1$ at year-end 2017, just from the inflows. Then beta release and safecoin trigger a *50 ripple-like move.
people try to buy safecoin but no exchange have implemented SAFE trading yet, causing a gold rush of epic proportion, over the counter. Some people on the forum manage to sell a few coins at 500$ to dumb money, but nobody really knows where safecoin is trading for decent volume.
People try to send their maids for safe, but realize they are stuck with a 2k withdrawl limit on poloniex. Or people send directly from Poloniex to exchange their maid coins, and never get Safe coins back since it is a pooled address. When dusts settles, everyone realize that maybe 25% of all maids were never converted into SAFE, causing another squeeze up. Everyone wants to farm, and farming is hard from the beginning.
3 months after beta release, March 2018, SAFE coin is consistantly trading at 100$ on bittrex.
I’m optimistically focused on the simplest scenario
Hope SAFE works, stuff happens, stuff happens;
SAFE does work; stuff happens stuff happens,
SAFE is still working - long wait, stuff happens 2025, phew that was a tough 10 year hodl
Yay, now how do I make the world a better place with this mountain of money?
Last month I’ve played different scenarios in my head too but it stays guessing what’s actually going on since last month.
I’ve even had some conspiracy thoughts like pushing money in crypto and buy so much of all to create a hold or bear Market for 2 years or so. Bla bla bla
But I reduced those thoughts to around 2% chance in my head by now so I’m pretty stable on it back now
Let’s assume it’s many new people (last time half year ago or so I checked this and all online wallets confirmed this) then the only thing that could temporarily slow everything down is Govzzz starting to care, Europe,us,… Throwing forbids etc.
But even then it’s simply unstoppable, simple as that, only adoption could get slowed.
No matter what happens it will always be interesting lol though I prefer your second theory
Based on this I calculated that the fair price by getting those markets disrupted is 20.5 USD per SafeCoin.
That’s what I believe to be a bare reasonable minimum, I haven’t included the demand for SafeCoins as digital cash, tokenization, the eventual demand of the Safe app market, distributed computing, OS integration (ie. genode.org), etc…
Polling time
Market for 2 years or so. Bla bla bla
