Meh, one thing’s for sure, it will go up again and it will go down again. When it launches for real it should go up a hell of a lot more than down. Until then, pft, who frickin knows? I guess home-vaults and testsafecoin ought to increase the general level of interest and confidence, but maybe not. They might be priced in already, or previous false-starts and big retraces might discourage people jumping in when they come. Really, only utility demand is going to make a guaranteed difference. When we see that happening I’ll be watching closely… with dollar signs blurring my vision (ashamed to admit lol)
Replying to @Taavik’s post with a comparison with FCT, and the last two posts …
My sense is that both FCT and MAID are very heavily manipulated. We all know that all markets are manipulated, but in the past few months that manipulation – both in terms of the aggression of whales and the social-media FUD campaigns – has increased dramatically. I agree that the fact that both coins are short-able really doesn’t help things, and that the manipulation has resulted in only the strongest of hands – the “true believers” – holding on.
However I disagree that FCT’s M2 or MAID’s live network are anywhere near to priced in. “Priced in” implies that some degree of price discovery has occurred within the market, and due to the manipulation both coins have undergone, I really don’t think that’s the case. OR: If M2 is priced into FCT, and public vaults are priced into MAID, then neither FCT and MAID are themselves anywhere near to “priced in” to the market. Whatever the case, I believe both projects are almost unbelievably undervalued atm – at least for those who are seriously following them.
So what’s going on? Both MAID and FCT are a bit hard to wrap your mind around initially. (Brian Deery, chief scientist of Factom, has estimated it takes about a year to understand FCT, and it may be similar with MAID.) These aren’t projects with “DNM adoption!!!” hype, or led by spotlight-oriented developers (thank gawd). From what I can tell from the chatter in this space, the average crypto investor has very little investing experience. (Many have no idea about the actual importance of market cap, or how available supply renders usd/coin irrelevant, etc.) And the whales likely know this. My guess is that many deep-pocketed investors are also increasingly aware of the massive potential of these projects. Combine uneducated investors with short-able coins and huge upside potential, and you get what we have now. Some may be shorting just to short, some weak hands may be fleeing the scene for a more secure coin (BTC), but I think that a lot of what we’re seeing in the markets now is a result of whales doing their thing in order to accumulate as much as possible at as low a rate as possible. If you think these projects stand a chance of 100x-ing in the next handful of years, then losing a bit on the shorting game is irrelevant if it allows you to accumulate a huge amount of coins at a low cost.
I’ve read theories in forums for both projects that try to justify the downtrend for both coins. While BTC’s rise certainly had an effect, I think it’s likely that it was used as a catalyst and an excuse for whales to suppress prices and accumulate. This is very hard to “prove,” but when I try to fit all the pieces together, this is imo the mostly likely scenario. I’m frankly not sure how else to explain FCT’s investment from Tim Draper(!), grants from the DHS and the Gates Foundation, the release of their testnet, etc – all of which have resulted in a lower price/FCT only days later. And similarly: MAID’s real advancements over the past months.
BTC’s rise can’t account for it all. Nothing has been priced in over the past few months. I’m not sure what will happen in the coming weeks, but as @dirvine has said, “Price follows value.” Maybe not immediately, but eventually, always. And I personally am not going to be stuck with a luke-warm BTC investment when projects like MAID and FCT are priced at their current levels, given how close both are to truly groundbreaking achievements.
One other thing to note: If the theory of whale accumulation (via a period of suppression) is correct, then those same whales are likely to pump their coins as aggressively as they’ve suppressed them. 2017 is going to be interesting …
I was only suggesting that vaults-from-home and testsafecoin could be priced in or could result in much smaller price jumps than many people hope. I have no idea ofc. It could spike massively. I was just making the point that it was very hard to predict.
I certainly don’t think a ‘live launch’ is priced in. As I’ve said a number of times I see SAFEcoin at at least $1 soon after launch of a successful full, functioning SAFE network I was just saying it was hard to predict what would happen in the build up phases now. Markets are very easy to spook and manipulate when they are 100% speculation.
I’m not sure any explanation is really required for the prices, although I am quite sure some manipulation does take place. Maid was at under 2c last year, FCT was much lower relatively speaking. Since then the tech has looked more promising and exciting. MAID has stayed between 5 and 12 cents. Those yo-yo’s have been big because it’s all speculation and speculators like to take profit and move to the next thing that’s going up. The fact that MAIDS have held a lot of value says a lot imo.
Perhaps there is some price suppression and big players doing weird shit, but I don’t see that as necessary to explain the current circumstances myself. Maid is still nearly 400% higher than it was this time last year. If we reached ATH at BTC value it would be nearly 25c and double what it was earlier this year at the previous fiat ATH. The prices now shouldn’t matter to anyone anyway, it’s not like we can spend them yet
Whatever the truth of it, I still think you’re right about 2017. I hope we don’t have to wait until 2018 anyway.
M2 and livenetwork are not calculated in the current price, i think first m2 will launch
before end of dec make it go nuts. Factom is a coin that can go x100 and i believe it will i bought a lot of them.
And i hope to switch some to maidsafe after the big rise it will get soon.
interesting perspective. Maybe I’ll try it… a little bit anyway.
Outa de blue MAID takeoff. Can it last?
And now when I have money the price is rising. Fuck that I’m not buying back at a lose. Hope the price drops again and I will buy back.
1$ + incoming till May
Its much lower then 1 to 2 months ago, i think the big rise will happen when it launches.
But i had some nice ride sold at 14k bought back at 9k sold now at 12k aiming for 9k again.
If not i have a nice amount of coins that i dont sell or buy with
My memory is kind of foggy but MIAD was trading on the main CNY trading page at Yuanbao before correct?
The move to the Tokens trading page seems new? and may have broken the link to coinmarketcap and resulted in the market no longer being visible on there?
Does anybody know how to obtain the link to the API documentation at Yuanbao. We cant resubmit to have it listed on coinmarketcap without it.
@nicklambert apologies for distracting you with these trivialities , but would you have access to the API information required to get this back on coinmarketcap?
Price is still very low. But it’s all in comparison really. Would you have bought a shit ton of btc at this price back in the day?
Yep and the only other thing holding safe back is people still calling it vapour Ware. Not much to argue with, it is taking its time…
As for now, both the highs and the the lows seems to be higher than the previous ones, but I would keep a close eye on when that stops being the case. Until then, with the current up trend, it seems to make sense to buy pullbacks and then post a few limit orders to take some profit off the table between a) where it starts making sense and b) somewhat higher than the previous high.
Yes, the only satisfactory answer to many of the technical criticisms is a practical demonstration of how these innovations actually work. Theoretical discussions with critics are usually dead-ends; people put forward their opinions until they conflict and then they agree to disagree.
When people see this all working for themselves (presuming it does), and they see that it isn’t being hacked or broken by malicious and cunning attackers (presuming it isn’t), then there will be an inevitable tsunami of interest imo.
It does still look like vapoware to anyone who isn’t prepared to spend a decent amount of time getting their heads around how much has already been achieved. As you say, can’t blame them for that. At some point it won’t be this weird esoteric dream, it’ll be something they instantly have use for and can play around with. Then it will be nice and obvious for everyone and the world will be a much better, safer place for it.
I love the price action on Maid the last few days. Really unusually strong and steady incline. Even now, with BTC rising and the Alts getting dumped as per normal, Maid just keeps ploughing forward. Very exciting to see!
Looking at Yuanbao now. I can’t find Maid on there. Have we been delisted or something? Seems odd, but maybe I’m just being an idiot in not finding it.
but don’t ask me what is written there Oo … no clue what i’m looking at xD
Ah, well done dude. I was being an idiot. Even with translated pages it’s hard to find anything on there
yeah i didn’t see it at first too … confusing website (especially if not translated xD )