Replying to @Taavik's post with a comparison with FCT, and the last two posts ...
My sense is that both FCT and MAID are very heavily manipulated. We all know that all markets are manipulated, but in the past few months that manipulation -- both in terms of the aggression of whales and the social-media FUD campaigns -- has increased dramatically. I agree that the fact that both coins are short-able really doesn't help things, and that the manipulation has resulted in only the strongest of hands -- the "true believers" -- holding on.
However I disagree that FCT's M2 or MAID's live network are anywhere near to priced in. "Priced in" implies that some degree of price discovery has occurred within the market, and due to the manipulation both coins have undergone, I really don't think that's the case. OR: If M2 is priced into FCT, and public vaults are priced into MAID, then neither FCT and MAID are themselves anywhere near to "priced in" to the market. Whatever the case, I believe both projects are almost unbelievably undervalued atm -- at least for those who are seriously following them.
So what's going on? Both MAID and FCT are a bit hard to wrap your mind around initially. (Brian Deery, chief scientist of Factom, has estimated it takes about a year to understand FCT, and it may be similar with MAID.) These aren't projects with "DNM adoption!!!" hype, or led by spotlight-oriented developers (thank gawd). From what I can tell from the chatter in this space, the average crypto investor has very little investing experience. (Many have no idea about the actual importance of market cap, or how available supply renders usd/coin irrelevant, etc.) And the whales likely know this. My guess is that many deep-pocketed investors are also increasingly aware of the massive potential of these projects. Combine uneducated investors with short-able coins and huge upside potential, and you get what we have now. Some may be shorting just to short, some weak hands may be fleeing the scene for a more secure coin (BTC), but I think that a lot of what we're seeing in the markets now is a result of whales doing their thing in order to accumulate as much as possible at as low a rate as possible. If you think these projects stand a chance of 100x-ing in the next handful of years, then losing a bit on the shorting game is irrelevant if it allows you to accumulate a huge amount of coins at a low cost.
I've read theories in forums for both projects that try to justify the downtrend for both coins. While BTC's rise certainly had an effect, I think it's likely that it was used as a catalyst and an excuse for whales to suppress prices and accumulate. This is very hard to "prove," but when I try to fit all the pieces together, this is imo the mostly likely scenario. I'm frankly not sure how else to explain FCT's investment from Tim Draper(!), grants from the DHS and the Gates Foundation, the release of their testnet, etc -- all of which have resulted in a lower price/FCT only days later. And similarly: MAID's real advancements over the past months.
BTC's rise can't account for it all. Nothing has been priced in over the past few months. I'm not sure what will happen in the coming weeks, but as @dirvine has said, "Price follows value." Maybe not immediately, but eventually, always. And I personally am not going to be stuck with a luke-warm BTC investment when projects like MAID and FCT are priced at their current levels, given how close both are to truly groundbreaking achievements.
One other thing to note: If the theory of whale accumulation (via a period of suppression) is correct, then those same whales are likely to pump their coins as aggressively as they've suppressed them. 2017 is going to be interesting ...