Yeah, very true. That’s why I stopped the rather exhausting day trading, and started to go holding long with a few investments. Daytrading was lots of fun to do, but it takes a lot of time and energy too.
I would agree with all of this and would suggest you never use stop-loss as its is not a smart play in high volatile markets. Other comments here pertain specifically to conventional regulated markets with “predictability” There is no such thing as “predictability” in these new crypto markets.
Like i said depends on the market cap of the coin, cause i dont see TA works if you trade a coin with 1 million market cap work. One person can ruin the whole TA not a organisation or criminals just one big trader.
Believe me, TA even works in a $5,000 market cap market, given there is a certain level of liquidity and players. Otherwise there wouldn’t be figures to work with.
You know why? Because the $1 billion traders are not in a $5,000 market, so to say. Every market has big traders and small traders, but they are in level with the market size. Every market size. Every volatile action is followed by a dampening effect, every seller has a counterparty, same for every buyer. Enough food to try TA.
Lol i can already let the market cap of 5000 go x10 with only the funds on Poloniex, so how is TA gonna work. Traders are everywere and they do everything to make .
And if i see the opertunity to make money on it i will do it no matter what the market cap is. I open about 6 trades on average a day.
OK, fair enough. Sounds like you are a focused trader with his brain on the right place. Now let’s play around a little with 2 different virtual trades that you are doing, and please correct me if I make wrong assumptions.
Trade one you don’t want to do anything risky: you sell a little Maid, let’s say 1,000 coins, at $0.10 today. Then you wait a week, and you buy back 1,250 Maid at $0.08 for the revenue of your sale one week ago. Good trade, nice profit (that is if you are into obtaining as much Maid as possible for the same amount of money). But it didn’t rock the broader market, right?
Trade two, you want to play it big. You go to a Maid exchange with hardly any liquidity and volume (Yuanbao currently, for example) and you bring either 10,000,000 Maid to sell to crash the market, or you bring $1,000,000 to play the pump and dump game. In both scenarios there will be a dampening effect because of arbitrage, new players (honest players, criminal players) showing up to jump on the volatile train, darkpools you didn’t know exist, etc. After a week, when the dust has settled, you make up the balance of your trades. Did the market go up as much as you thought? Did the market come down as much as you thought? Did you make that much profits after all? I don’t think so. So with such extreme amounts of money compared to the daily volume (or market cap) you would think again, what is the best trading strategy. And I’m quite sure you would adjust your trading amounts to the orderbook available. So the volatily is also dampened again. However, you could still be able to move the market substantially, let’s say 50% up or down.
Now TA comes in. Let’s say I would analyse the data where your two trades I just mentioned are involved. I’m looking at trends, at history repeating itself, and trying to discount everything. What would happen is, your first trade would fit nicely in a trend going down over the week being analysed. Did, or will, history repeat itself for the trade I’m going to place? That’s up to my subjective judgement, depending on all kinds of technical tools I’m using, and the value I give these tools. Was everything discounted? Let’s say it wasn’t to my opinion, and I will most likely do a trade on a downtrend after your trades the week before.
Your second, very volatile, trade would also be analysed. But how? Was the trend down, up, sideways, when you blew up the market with a volatile action? Was there already a trend going in very volatile actions (happens a lot with companies close to bankruptcy)? Is there a history repeating pattern to recognize before the trend, or during the trend? Was everything discounted? Or was the volatile action a stand alone action by someone crazy, so I can leave the data out, not being representative for the general actions in that market? And after analyzing all these figures, I would trade accordingly, or refrain from trading when I’m not feeling risk-happy.
I’m hoping you understand what I mean. This, in a nutshell, is how I used TA. And I hardly used TA alone, I also used something I call “common sense” and “gut feelings”. Fast emotional decisions spoiled it though, won a lot and lost a lot… lol
Yea i agree with many things you say here and i do use PA and TA, but i ignore them mostly on coins below the 1 million market cap. Specialy if they have a usecase take for example Factom i bought them at 30k satoshi and that was a bargain specialy after the financial round they had and they started to get investors. The rise can be huge and fast so i mostly buy them when they are “cheap” no matter the TA also cause like i said before 1 person can increase the coin 100% and not because they wanna pump it, but because they see a future for it.
The top 20 coins i do use a little PA and TA on but mostly to buy them so i get them on support levels (just above) so the risk is less. but still the market cap is small and some coins are competing with bn dollar company’s and they can do things better.
Also cause the market cap is low i more look at fundamental trading cause news inflaunce the price hugely in crypto, bad or good news from mt. gox to maid soon going to launch the mvp ;).
Also TA does work cause many people are watching them, but compared to forex and other markets traders in crypto are really underinformed about trading if you ask me. i doubt more then 50% know what a macd does, Rsi is oversold or overbought. Or ever heared from a ichimoku kinko hyo. And thats more cause many people are here for the future and technical aspect and get sucked into trading by wanting more of that great bitcoin and maid and factom.
Trading on the gut feeling is my strategy aswell but i combine it with beeing patient and placing orders on the right spot and build them up, also i rather miss the train then gambling to be on the train i never buy in hypes or big increases sometimes that would of cost me but some times it saved my ass.
@Bacobob PA? What Are You, S.Freud?
@MyLegacyKit agree + be patient with pacobob, he’ll get there, baby steps
TA works, period.
Im happy you ask that, so that shows me that someone else really need baby steps. (a lot of them)
PA stands for Price Action https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_action_trading
(one of the most used trade formations)
And im already there trust me, TA dont work 100% period otherwise everyone would win.
I like the posts that dont pretend that something “is” or “is not”, when it should be obvious to everyone that these are merely tools that individuals use. Theres no tool that can’t possibly “work”, nor is there a tool that always “works”, regardless of the user.
I really like that I can get a glimpse of how trading can be conducted, what people think about it and (from time to time) have a frank discussion about the impacts.
Yeah exactly, in no way I pretend to have the perfect wisdom to always do profitable trades. The only thing I’m trying to put on the table is: TA works in all kinds of markets, small, rigged, regulated, big, and who thinks something else, that’s OK. It works for me, that’s enough.
The only (subjective) thing in this TA discussion that would highly interest me, how do traders implement that part: Was everything discounted? I remember having done trades where I thought that something was not discounted yet, and then it turned out that the market thought it was priced in already. Is someone willing to elaborate on that, maybe with a Maid trade as example? Very interested to hear you guys experiences!
The hard part with TA is predicting the future, simply cause the indicators are lagging indicators, means they indicated what the market already did, but if i use indicators i use RSI. macd
To see if a market is oversold or overbought, if something is oversold its more likely that it will recover a bit and if its already cheap like maid and factom it can be a great bottum.
Trendlines are great to see if a trend might be broken but im always waiting for another confirmation cause it can easly be a fake breakout.
Support and resistance points are great entry and exit points cause more people are looking at them (but again i dont think this apply a lot to coins with a really low market cap) how higher the cap how more it works.
Macd to watch the trendline
You might sometimes see a nice divergence show up but i dont see that as a usefull sign just yet cause people are not watching for divergence yet in a lower cap.
I’m not a trader, but I can certainly explain my approach to investing in this space in case anyone is interested. My thinking has been very much influenced by the work of Carlota Perez (big thanks to Marc Andressen who has said her book https://www.amazon.fr/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-Capital-Dynamics/dp/1843763311 had the biggest influence on his approach to VC investing).
Here’s a short primer:
"For those that are not familiar with Carlota’s work, she studied all
of the major technological revolutions since the industrial revolution
and how they were impacted by and how they impacted the capital markets.
What she found was that there are two phases of every technological
revolution, the installation phase when the technology
comes into the market and the infrastructure is built (rails for the
railroads, assembly lines for the cars, server and network
infrastructure for the internet) and the deployment phase
when the technology is broadly adopted by society (the development of
the western part of the US in the railroad era, the creation of suburbs,
shopping malls, and fast food in the auto era, and the adoption of
iPhones, Facebook, and ridesharing in the internet/mobile era).
And the “turning point” between the two phases is almost always
marked by a financial crash and recovery. See the chart below from
I’m not going to guess if we’ve seen the “collapse phase” of the
Bitcoin technological revolution, or if we are in it, or if it is
coming. But if Bitcoin and Blockchain is going to be a meaningful
technological revolution, and I think it will be, then we are going to
move from the installation phase to the deployment phase at some point
and there will be a major financial break point that happens along the
So in essence I look for technologies where there is a bubble, because I think that’s a sign of their potential importance/impact and I wait for the collapse in price in the transition period from installation to deployment. With bitcoin I think that happened in 2013/14, so I began investing in early 2015. For MAID, I believe we’ve invested before the initial bubble, or that we’re at the very beginning of the installation phase, so I’m looking for a period of irruption and frenzy when the potential of the technology becomes more widely known and talked about.
Sounds very interesting… copy ordered!
Good decision! Unfortunately, it’s out of print so expensive, but well worth the time and money IMO!
Yeah, I found one for £20… there were plenty of copies over £50 though! Looks really good, so worth it if it is one I will actually read, instead of just buying with good intentions and leaving on the bookshelf like so many others lol
Ha! I know that feeling well. But even if you don’t read all the chapters, I think it’s at least an interesting framework to approach technology, the financial markets and investing.
More broadly (and apologies because this gets well beyond the subject of MaidSafeCoin) are the implications for the economy and financial markets as a whole. If Carlota Perez is correct that “Technological Surge Cycles” follow a pattern, then what are the implications for the next 5-10 years? Everyone remembers the magnitude of the internet bubble, but that was just one technology (or set of technologies) albeit a big one. Well, I would argue that there are a whole raft of technologies which are about the enter the “Installation” phase of her model: AI, VR, 3-D printing, renewable energy, autonomous vehicles and drones, genetic sequencing, robotics, the IoT and of course the financial and decentralised internet technologies of Bitcoin and MaidSafe etc.
Combine that with the fact that there is a global savings glut ("Global gross savings are about 24% of global GDP and, when adjusted for depreciation of fixed capital (savings wealth consists of fixed assets as well as financial capital), we are still seeing savings of 11% to 12% on a net basis, which is substantively in excess of nominal economic growth. http://www.fidelity.com.au/insights-centre/investment-articles/the-global-savings-glut/) we have a situation where there is an enormous amount of capital that will be chasing too little income as the money markets and bond markets offer sub 1% yields.
So, my totally unqualified investment hypothesis then is that in the next 5 years we will witness the emergence of a multiple of technology bubbles that will make the late 90s internet bubble seem like a tiny blip on the radar.
I will get straight to the point. Is there anything preventing MAID from same longer-term bullish campaign that happened to FCT going from 1300 to 6000?
We did exhibit same price movements and almost identical market structure. Then FCT received funding, released M1 and began it’s 2 months long rally which increased its price by 400%+.
Asking for honest opinions.
I’ll give mine: I think there is demon in the shadows accumulating and would be best if we can reveal him and get our chunk of MAID before/if it goes for same rally as FCT as I think there is no other market that can do a 200%+ rally at this time than MAID.
Is it our time?
Do you mean from 130k tot 600k satoshi ?
Yes, the rally of FCT from 100k sat low to 650k sat high.
It would be awesome if everyone shared their opinions. Positive, negative, different…