MaidSafeCoin (MAID) - Price & Trading topic (Part 1)

@Traction I realise some do care about the price day to day, and if somebody needs to sell before launch etc obviously it matters a lot. But if not, what is your concern?

Things are flying right now anyway. Personally I’m excited by the developments over the last year and which keep accelerating, so I’m more optimistic than I have been since the first year of my involvement.

So I’m curious, as we’ve both been on this journey for such a long time, why you seem to be concerned at this point about how others perceive recent news. I’m very sorry that Maidsafe have laid off staff, but we knew they needed to manage their finances carefully at this point, so while it is unfortunate it looks sensible from a business perspective. It makes me think that perhaps they hope to achieve MVP and perhaps more before accepting investment. Which will help them achieve better terms, or perhaps avoid the need altogether.

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I believe the team has been very open and transparent always, so i dont believe the team is suddenly hiding some sort of failure from us now.

I don’t think that 1 person leaving on personal grounds and 2 other persons leaving because Maidsafe made a decision (on a team of more than 30), means the project is steaming towards the icebergs.

So cheer up and keep faith, the fact that this project cannot fail, means the focus is that it will not fail.

You need nothing more than that.

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@warz
The max coin supply isn’t meant to be reached. It’s meant to fluctuate depending on Net economy.
Even if max was reached, price per safecoin would drop—hence market cap doesn’t go up.
As you say: “crypto markets are filled with really stupid people.” :blowfish:
…The same who don’t keep MAID/their future afloat by buying+believing, as with the top-20 cryptos.

Even if your proposition was true: “massive inflation” = 10%, apparently?
I don’t think MAID should go super yet. But helping w/ funding/Fleming by going up 10-20%? Yes.
(Not that Maidsafe can’t think of their own ways to fund, with the massive effort done so far.)
Things aren’t nearly as bad as people are making it. Except for me, saying the price is low :+1: .

So yeah! Listen to me so I can sell 1%-5% for my needs before 1-2 yr. til Beta, thanks :wink: .
(People knoww they want to buy to my handsssss!!! No, really: maybe? Would be… handy~.)

https://cryptobubbles.net/chart

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Maybe I picked my words badly there; I believe it is how people outside this group perceive the project and the news.

There is lots to be optimistic about for sure and it feels like there is fresh enthusiasm to get the MVP over the line.

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In my opinion, the opposite is true…massive deflation is coming. Because to farm new coins first someone has to burn old coins…

And given the fact that most people plan to upload mainly private information there will not be anything to see on the net.

This is not a blockchain. Here empty blocks are not generated. If no one downloads information no new coins will be created… so massive deflation is coming.

I still fully believe in the team and the project. The world needs a product like this and I believe heaven and earth will be moved if necessary to achieve it.

Perception is everything when it comes to pricing the token though. Some, like yourself, will see everything through a prism of pessimism. Those outside this group may pick up more on these negatives than the positives too.

IMO, delivering on the roadmap to get something useable out the door will go a long way to calm any jangling nerves. Indeed, the fact we have a clear roadmap now, due to the research phase completing, is something to be positive about.

The potential of this project is still phenomenal, including potential ROI. Few others out there carry such ground breaking feature sets. The charismatic leader is also a talisman for the cause and has been unshakable since the start. This has allowed a strong team to form around him. These are all highly positive things to be grateful for.

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I know this part of the network is not ready yet but my understanding is that the farm rate depends on the space provided on the network. At first we will have plenty of storage space so the farm rate will be very low.

I also do not think that the burned safecoin will be equal to the farmed safecoin.

But we will see, I think we will have deflation at first…

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“How could anyone have seen this coming” is a phrase that’s going to be very popular when SAFEnetwork is released.
LOL

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Exactly! That’s the point I was making.

People could simply have overlooked the MAID project, that doesn’t make them stupid. MAID has quite a few signs of a shitcoin project (promised to deliver in 2014 but didn’t, still vapoware 5 years after ico, very little supply released for the public etc). When you only have so much time to do research it’s easy to discard a project with so much uncertainty, which brings me to the second point: There is a LOT of uncertainty with the project. There’s still no date for release and the team is running out of funding. On top of that nobody knows yet if the system put together will even work as good as promised. That makes MAID a very high risk project and could be ignored for the less risk averse. Not taking super high risk does not equal stupidity. If anything, we are probably the stupid ones investing in maid.

It would be a different matter if we had a whitepaper with all details on how the project would work, but we don’t. You simply do not know that this will work, because you don’t have the details of HOW it will work. A lot is still up in the air. That’s not to say buying now is a bad idea, it’s just highly speculative.

I am actually counting on the “stupid masses” to come in and buy the price up massively when launch is right around the corner, that’s why I have been buying now. Not because I think the price is relatively cheap (because it’s not given all the uncertainty and risk), but because I think the price will go up high - temporarily. When that happens, or if that happens, I am ready to sell into that hype.

You do realize that the 10.5% is current supply ? Right? That means 89.5% of coins are not yet released. That’s where the inflation comes from, and it will be far higher than 10%. You can do the math, that’s more than 800 percent inflation in total

As @Antifragile already pointed out, this isn’t how the system works. In addition, on the day of launch, 215 million new coins come into circulation (the 5% investors). That’s an instant 47.5% inflation of coin supply - on day 1. But even worse: current published estimates points towards 98% distribution over a 10 year period.

I know these are old estimates btw, so no need to remind me, but they are our only estimates currently - If there are new estimates out indicating something else, I would love to see a source.

Now, of course - coins must be spent before rewards can be given. This could result at best in some months of deflation, but then there must be massive inflation to reach the estimates. This will exacerbate the launch hype and is a bad thing. Just look at zcash how that worked out.

For more info on estimated inflation click here

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Inflation doesn’t occur if there is growth to match it. Just because coin supply goes up doesn’t mean the coin is automatically devalued. If those estimates were to come true and we had that much success and participation in the network, the coins will be worth a lot more than they are now, regardless of total supply.

Take a look at Bitcoin. It released a lot of coins really fast, similar to these estimates you listed here, in a similar time frame. That hasn’t stopped it from mooning. Bitcoin doesn’t even have the utility or use case of MAID.

Ultimately, you are overlooking an important fact. If the network works well and catches on, anyone holding MAID now will make a lot of money, regardless of coin supply increase.

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Increasing coin supply is inflation and occurs regardless of demand for maidsafecoin. With matching demand the price suppression is going to be less visible, but it will still be there in the form of less profit. With zero inflation the price would go much higher than with inflation. It’s basic supply and demand. Example: If 1000 people want to eat pizza and there is 1 pizza available the price of that pizza will be higher than if there are 1000 pizzas available.

It took more than 4 years with a fully working product for bitcoin to reach 1 billion in market cap (and that is being generous and counting mcap using the full 21 million supply). Maid is at 0.8 billion right now, but with no working product and years (?) away from launch.

There’s also a major difference between maid and bitcoin. Massive inflation in the beginning (like bitcoin had) is fine. But when you have a starting supply, a base and THEN massive inflation it’s a completely different matter. Bitcoin didn’t start out with 2.1 million coins that were held for 4-6 years among early adopters before it started inflating like what happens with maidsafe. That’s where the issue is.

This could be one of the reasons why there is not more interest in maid currently. Early adopters are not rewarded like they were with bitcoin, in fact they are to be completely diluted.

I am not, because this is all based on “if”. Currently maid is a high risk speculative investment and a promise of a prosperous future, just not guarantee.

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Unlike BTC, which has a maximum supply capped at 21,000,000 BTC, ETH does not have an overall cap. The total supply of ETH and its rate of issuance was instead determined in the cryptocurrency’s 2014 pre-sale. That sale saw 60,000,000 ETH created for contributors to the pre-sale, 12,000,000 ETH created as a development fund, and the annual issuance capped at 18,000,000 ETH per year.

This annual issuance of new ETH represents roughly one-quarter of the initial supply. Whenever a block is mined, which occurs approximately every 15 seconds, that miner receives an award in ETH. This was originally set at 5 ETH, but was reduced to 3 ETH following the Ethereum network’s Byzantium update in October 2017. The Byzantium update is one half of the larger Metropolis update to the Ethereum network, which concludes with Constantinople sometime in 2018. At the time of writing it is unknown whether the Constantinople upgrade will affect the inflation rate.

The constant inflation rate doesn’t seem to have stopped ethereum going up and up. Neither did the pre-mine.

This is simply not true, because you are assuming the growth rate of the network would remain the same with no injection of additional coins. That’s not how an economy works. The inflation rate isn’t the rate at which additional money is put into circulation, it is the amount of money put into circulation that outpaces growth.

The reason these projects release additional coins is because it fuels growth. The goal is to release coins at a rate that matches network growth which creates a neutral situation without inflation or deflation occurring. What you are suggesting doesn’t even make sense, because then, deflation would never occur in a Keynesian Fiat money system, it would be impossible. We know that isn’t true.

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You are both right. It just depends whether you measure purely monetary inflation or whether you take into account its value vs demand.

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Personally I agree with @warz . Its always refreshing to see someone rational and not in the “moon boys” category of where this project lands and its fiat value. To argue this isn’t at the moment highly speculative and a high risk crypto you would be delusional. I simply continue holding and believing the team will get an MVP out there that hopefully works well enough. I do so though based on the evidence we get from weekly updates(which of course will always be shed in a generally positive light). I don’t follow all the various code repositories, nor studied the source so I don’t know from that perspective what looks to physically be done through code review and analysis.

Would be fun to call up various core engineers and get their honest opinion and be like “My man, does this all really make sense? Is there a clear engineering objective here? And is the timeline set in front of you reasonable for your level of skill and capabilities?” If the truthful answer from all of them is “Hell yeah I am dialed in and understand exactly what I need to do and how to do it to get this network to MVP, just give me a few more months and 80 hour week grinds”. And if all are in that boat then well hodl on, if most are still indecisive on direction or inexperienced in what they have been tasked to do, or management hasn’t given a clear objective to MVP at this stage then that is when the worry sets in for me. I believe with the Github board and updated road maps they are trying to set a clear direction(ofc engineering specification and requirements are a much more detailed endeavor) but I just hope everyone involved is dialed in, they have to hit on all cylinders for a number of months here. Otherwise they won’t have leverage when funding time comes around(which I suppose talks are already in progress) and I think that will hurt the project.

Fingers crossed :slight_smile: .

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There’s a difference between starting at 10.5% of supply and starting at 60%. ETH’s inflation is also expected to slow almost to a halt once POS is implemented. See chart:

Additionally the price of ETH didn’t do well after launch hype. The earliest price history I find is Aug 7th, and the btc ratio dropped 80% from that day until late december, a period of almost 6 months. This, by the way, was despite all the “if’s” working out and with significantly less dilution of initial investors AND serious trouble in the bitcoin camp at the same time, which drew a lot of people in to eth.

And why did you compare with ETH? Why not Zcash which is a lot closer to maid with regards to starting supply? See how that went:

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That just means stagnation. If the demand grows x and you release x coins you create a stable price that is not moving up. As for the rest of your reply, that’s just about semantics and arguing around the definition of inflation as @Traktion pointed out. It doesn’t disprove my point that more supply causes pressure on price downwards.

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I just picked it as it is #2 in market cap and had a pre mine. With btc at 0% pre mine and ethereum at about 60%, with both doing well, it just suggests to me that both options can work.

Moreover, the scope of SAFENetwork is far bigger than either. The amount of value that each coin represents is therefore potentially far higher too. Currency is just one app on SAFENetwork, which just scrapes the surface of what is possible.

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In a vacuum, you are correct. With no other variables involved, increasing the supply of money lowers the price. The problem is, you need high liquidity during your biggest growth point to maintain steady growth. A primary strategy for this is to increase the circulation of money. Thus, while increasing the supply would technically drive down price, it also accelerates network growth which increases demand, and therefore the price. It is possible to increase the supply of coin and still deflate a currency because the supply could not be high enough to meet the demand for growth.

The reason you want to increase coin supply to stimulate growth is because it encourages people to spend instead of hodling. When a currency deflates, people hold onto it because they make money by just having it sit there. When you are trying to grow and everyone is hodling, you can severely diminish growth.

Thus, in the end, a deflating currency can raise price in the short term, but diminish growth, and the long term price.

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