Word certainly seems to be getting out. It makes you wonder just how many people are watching the progress of the project, but keeping their powder dry until at least alpha 3.
I like the fact that turnover has been steady. It could be that people are hodlers or it could mean they are too afraid to do anything. At least there is no stampede for the exit - yet
You’ll probably have thought of this & possibly done it, but just in case: it is now easy to borrow against crypto rather than liquidating if required.
There are a number of providers, and they could unlock the value of BTC that’s held without liquidation, at the cost of 8% or so APR. Nexo & Salt are two I’m familiar with, and there are others I believe.
Well, it’s that time of the month again to allocate surplus, and once again a few thousand safe off the market into strong hands. I am grateful to get a few more for my buck. You feel it in articles and in the lack of downvotes on SAFE topics on other forums; people are noticing safe, and no longer feeling negative. You just want to scream off the rooftop ‘It’s NOT a blockchain!’, but people seem to have forgotten that there are other ways of doing things.
If the day ever comes that SAFE works and people realize that it should never have been treated as yet another correlated altcoin, the market reaction will be like when Sauron finally perceived the one ring at mount doom. In my daydreams that is anyway
Yup, like this…
Some say bitcoin could go as low as $2000 before stabilising. … That’s half the price at the moment.
It feels like we could see a bottoming out of the maidsafe price at about $0.08, $0.05 if us accumulators are lucky.
Thats Santa coming for us
if it gets anywhere near those prices, I will be backing the truck up. I don’t think they will get quite that low, but ya never know…
Sounds like you’re going to have some competition. Might want to start backing that truck up already…
I’ve been on the buy side for years Grabbing what I can every month at anything under 50c. Have a target and almost there. But at <10c I would be liquidating non crypto assets to buy.
The things I missed these past few days… These charts amuse me to no extent. Self-appointed oracles making long-term predictions, and then they even put a “black swan” on the picture, smugly referring to themselves as one in-the-know who understands this Taleb dude’s theories.
The only problem with that is that Taleb firmly states long-term predictions are a fool’s errand, plain impossible for theoretical reasons (so it’s not just that we didn’t find the best way to do it: we never will) and the right way to go about tail risk is to alter one’s exposure instead of trying the impossible, that is, “predicting” (more like, daydreaming about) the unknowable.
How much of the time were these predictions correct? For example, did this same dude predict the end of his Cycle 3 before the fact? Also, what about that top near the end of Cycle 2? I would sure feel the need to do something about that. Or, did he know about the crash two weeks ago even a single day before it happened???
This whole thing is self-inflicted ignorance about reality.
The way the data is presented has little to do with whether it’s correct. It has some to do with the unpredictability of human behavior but that’s just a single layer among many that makes prices utterly unpredictable. This whole chart is plain bullshit, nothing more.
BTW, I put the black swan on the chart. It’s a meme. Smug? Sure, why not?
I have to say I like the chart. The whole concept of longer and longer periods between cycles makes sense to me. Anyway, I stand with you in saying, the quality of all the predictions is always doubtfull.
To be fair, Taleb was much more concerned with pushing risk out to a long tail, with some having the belief that it removed the risk. I don’t believe this applies to crypto at all - everyone is aware of the volatility.
I tend to find that smart, logical people have big problems accepting these charts. Primarily, this is because there is no logical reason for it to become true.
However, we are dealing with a belief system here. If enough people have faith in it occurring, it will occur. Moreover, people are often cyclic in their beliefs. These charts are anticipating social behaviours and sometimes even lead them.
It takes more intellectual honesty than smarts, to be honest.
Please answer: How many people have reliably predicted a number of big moves just a day ahead of time, again and again, without a number of false positives? Can you show just one? Yet, we keep looking for oracles because it feels nice and fuzzy to “know” the future, especially when put against the hard cold reality of not knowing a thing.
The old argument of the self-fulfilling prophecy. There are several problems with that.
Firstly, there are way too many such predictions. Can any one of them claim enough following to measurably alter the market?
Secondly, how would you reliably identify which of the hundreds of these predictions is the one? That is, before the fact, when it still matters.
Thirdly, if it seems you picked the right one because the market did follow what the chart seemed to have predicted, how would you verify that it was indeed the effect of the chart and not just coincidence? Some of those hundreds of predictions are bound to come true simply by chance, especially if our criteria for judging their precision is exhausted by eyeballing them, maybe even squinting a bit to make things fit a little better.
Fourthly, I have the feeling much of the big moves are not as much the result of many people herding together than that of a few huge whales deciding what would happen next.
You seem to confuse the difference between a large scale (which is obvious) and a low tail exponent (which most have no idea what is).
The scale is a simple multiplier, and it has nothing to do with tail risk. In fact, a smaller apparent volatility in the short term is often the result of a very low tail exponent because then most of the samples are very close to the center but those that aren’t can be really far. It’s easy to get fooled into thinking nothing crazy can happen, when in fact you’d just have to wait long enough to see the true colors of the return distribution. Anyway, just because everybody is aware of the scale of volatility it that doesn’t mean they are also aware of tail risk because it comes on top of that visibly large volatility you’re talking about.
To be fair, high volatility does force all sane traders to use leverages way below 1, and that does cut off the far left tail. Those who use margin are idiots and anybody who thinks shorting crypto is a good idea deserves to be squeezed.
lol. Though I’m not sure I can understand the message. Are you predicting the predictor is up for a big surprise? That’s the only interpretation I could make sense of.
All prognosticators are always right exactly half the time
Not even true. Some manage to get yes/no questions right less than half the time… When they start proclaiming the end of the world is nigh, it’s probably time to buy.
Something like that. All predictions fail, some horribly so…but SAFE will moon.
I should have put it in quotes. This was a statement about “the fortune teller” from ,here.