I just finished watching the Premiere of Episode 10.
I’m late to the party here on the discussion about about inflation, but I just want to throw my $.02 in. If the SAFE Network becomes the Internet 2.0, $20K in the future is not all that impossible to believe at some point 20 years down the road.
One has to remember, even at max distribution, of which it is unlikely the Network will ever come close to meeting, there is only about 0.58 coins per person on the planet. Combine that with inflation and GDP growth in the fiat markets, and $20K in 20 years is somewhere in the vicinity of $11,000-14,000 in today’s money at inflation rates of 2-4%. Assume there are 3.5B coins in circulation as the network settles into an equilibrium balance of sorts. At $20K/coin, that would mean the total value of the 3.5B Safecoins is $70T. Ridiculous? Perhaps, but not so fast.
One also has to take into account several factors. First, the CEO of Cisco was said to estimate the value of the Internet in 2016 at $19T. I’m not sure where he got that number from, but lets assume he is more of an expert than us in this matter. Take that estimate, and in 20 years of inflation, that would be somewhere in the vicinity of $30T with a moderately conservative inflation estimate. He then goes on to say that he believes the IoT wave will increase this “value” (I put value in quotes because the Internet does not intrinsically hold value, but it represents a market that holds that value) 5-10x over the next couple decades. Just taking the low end of that estimate, and we are already at $150T in the “value” of the Internet.
If the Internet consumes our lives in more ways then it already does via IoT, expanding AI, etc., combined with industrializing countries with massive populations joining in this phenomenon (China and India), in addition to most transactions worldwide now being done on the Safe network, then $20K in 20 years is not so far fetched.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not claiming this is going to happen, nor do I think it is likely to happen in this manner, but to outright dismiss the possibility is pretty naive as well. IF the Safe Network is able to establish itself as the Internet 2.0, and IF it can get a foothold in being the backbone of worldwide financial transactions, $20K is a low estimate. Again, just consider the fact that there are 0.58 Safecoins per person in the entire world, and that is at the max 4.3B in circulation. In 20 years, we will hit ~9B people. That’s 0.48 coins per person.The scarcity is real, and if successful, the initial inflation will be meaningless.
I am pretty optimistic about Safenet, although I don’t believe it has the potential to overthrow the current internet. Do you really believe the average joe will do their online shopping on a site that starts with safe:// ? Or am I missing some obvious bridge between Safenet and the current internet? Or do you think people won’t be using websites at all anymore 10 years from now?
I also am very skeptical about replacing the full internet. In the end, decentralized solutions always have tradeoffs on things like speed and responsiveness and the ability to program certain things. As I’ve banged on about earlier in the thread, all it takes to make investing now rational though is the idea that safe could take down a chunk of the file storage market and nothing more. For me, $10 is moon, and if/when we get there we’ll have a good idea if we are in orbit or shooting for the stars.
I think I agree with you. One of the things that got me very excited was how easy it is to host a simple website on SAFE. Trying to think as 14 year-old me tinkering with websites, I don’t think I would have chosen for SAFE if it existed at the time. Simply because all you want is to reach as many people as possible with your website. That is the number one objective for young people and the internet is your best bet. If there was an option to gain access to the SAFE network via the normal internet, that would be a different story. But as far as I know there is not and there are no plans to do so. I think that unfortunately the first real-use websites on SAFE will be for criminal purposes and it ends up like a TOR alternative. A very good one of course, but stil very niche. On another note, I tested the SAFE messaging app on android an was very impressed. I think it all depends on what you believe people will use to gather/store information/communicate in the future. Apps or websites?
15 years ago people laughed at me when I told them linux will win over windows. And it happened. All android phones are linux. Linux is everywhere and people are using it and they even do not know they are using it. I of course did not know that it would happen this way. Nobody knew that. The point is, people are not important. What matter are developers, open source communities and companies. If facebook decide to replace backend of their messenger app you will have villion users in few hours. Thanks mobiles people are installing apps. Any app developer can switch backend to safenetwork and you will have millions of users using safenet instantly and none of them will know about it. I myself can bring half million users in a day if we decide to switch our backend of our games to safenetwork. What matter is if this switch is worth it. Maybe our business is not the best match, but WhatsApp, FB Messenger, and other secret chat apps are. I am sure I can find thousands of apps in appstore where the switch to safenet backend would bring profit.
True, interesting. Care to explain why you think that your business is not the best match? Do you think Safenet will lack significant performance for game backends?
On some stage in future would help to have inbuilt SAFE app or package app on every new device. Do not know the price
I agree upon you with this wholeheartedly. I think this is the hidden way to get the safe network into the hands of millions of users. Ofcourse the app builder then has to pay the network for storage but that is no other than what it has to do today. And then it is just as normal, making money in different ways serving adds, adding a subscription model, or figure out something new. For example the app is 200MB, double its size and use the other 200MB local storage to sell to the network. Making the user pay for using the app using the safe network.
Our main problem is GDPR. There are few others, but GDPR requires us to delete user’s data if they request to. Safenet does not allow it and we will not risk 20 million fine. Deleting private keys does not count from legal view.
Thanks. But isn’t that one of SAFE’s biggest pros (in combination with SOLID)? That the user can decide themselves who can / can’t access their data? Or do you think that is practically not doable for your business?
Ok, I had to reread that a couple of times. But that is just genious! You force the user to share some local storage for the benefit of the developer. Will that be practically feasible?
I was taking about storing their data on our safe account. Of course we can internally create safe account per user, but from legal point of view we will still be owners of that data and will not be able to delere them. And if users have to create their safe accounts and remember their keys for legal reasons than it is not possible for us to switch to safenet.
Sounds like an opportunity for the first of a long line of SafeGames.
Do I see that in the first year, or even 5 years of the Safe Network? No. It will take time to grow and integrate itself in the market. However, awareness about privacy of data is finally circling back around to where people are starting to care again. If the Safe Network is able to get just a few killer apps, mostly in the social media and secure messaging space, it could draw customers in to the network based on privacy and control of data, alone.
There are a few avenues I think the marketing team should aggressively pursue.
- SOLID integration and partnerships will get some much needed eyeballs on the project from some very important tech influencers.
- Privacy focused email/messaging developers. ProtonMail is starting to gain traction and with a big enough user base that if they get on board, it would be a huge win for the Safe Network. There are a couple other lesser known ones with still a few hundred thousand users, like Tutanota, that may want to get in on the ground floor.
- Content creators. Even many of the ultra-successful ones are simply fed up with Youtube, and Vimeo is pretty much a joke. Just a couple moderately successful creators mirroring their content on the Safe Network and promoting that people go there to watch it would be a huge win. Combine that with a Patreon-like app to fund uploads and the new Youtube could be born. If I’m not mistaken, pay the producer is slotted to be in the farming algorithm. I’m not sure how much this would generate for the content creator, for say, 1M views, but it would be interesting to be able to calculate those stats.
IANAL, but how can the law require you to delete data you are not technically able to delete because the user made it so?
Also who is the who that is supposed to delete the data.
Its like saying that a person carved some text in the rock face then is asking the earth to delete it.
Unfortunately laws like GDPR take a long time to pass. The previous EU data protection law was from 1998 - almost pre-Web. So it will have been drafted before there was much use of P2P technologies at least commercially. Hopefully common sense will prevail and amendments will be introduced sooner rather than later.
Will the Bulls be back for Christmas?
Hoping so if for no other reason than I want an end to the morbidity the Bears bring to the party (everywhere)
About a year ago we were ready to fly around the world to meet up… Bears chased all that away, getting bored of it now.
Tis the season to be jolly after all