Even though I don’t like it I have to agree with you. I’m on the record as saying I can’t wait for the day the Maid sets its own value
Just because extreme values can accour dosen’t mean that there is not random price movements that falls within normal distribution, even though the normal distribution might be approximate, skewed or kurtosis.
To calculate the mean of past daily return was done to show statistical analysis and did not meant to be predictive in any way, it was used to show that what seems like a huge price drop could be a random event without a bigger meaning.
Does not look like much happens here but recently acquired by Coinbase perhaps a decentralized option?
In fact, more of the samples are within 1 standard deviation than for a normal distribution. The problem is, when they aren’t, they can be very far.
It’s a bit like the situation when you’re saying crossing the road blindfolded is a safer than crossing the meadows blindfolded because the pavement is much smoother therefore you have a lower probability to stumble. You may add that those who say you’re risking your life are idiots because never were you been killed by a car while in it.
You multiplied the daily returns with the number of days in a year. That’s extrapolating the results. In other words, predicting.
Look, I’m not mad at you All I’m saying is the population variance of this return distribution is unknown, arguably higher than the sample variance, therefore the sample mean is meaningless (pun intended.)
You can calculate the mean reasonably well from about 30 normally distributed samples. You would need millions or billions or trillions of samples for approximating the mean of a Student’s t distribution with the same precision, depending on its degrees of freedom.
Note about lognormal and normal. Prices and returns are both multiplicative (there is the same distance between 10 and 100 as between 100 and 1000 or between 1000 and 10000) so they need to be analyzed in logarithmic space. When I say “returns” I always mean log-returns. The important part is that the normal (and lognormal) distributions have a very thin tail that blinds you to high-probability large events.
The market dosen’t give shit about the technology. I mentioned a few times: the price of MAID is completely detached from that of the future Safecoin, and has nothing to do with the Safe Network. It’s driven by speculation.
Anyone else get the feeling that we’re going to see $0.07 - $0.15 prices before we climb to new highs?
I am waiting for $.20 cent or lower to load up some more.
Not sure about new high but low seems possible.
Found this article to be interesting (although wish they/WallSt had never got their hands on it in the first place).
“The concept of “price discovery” might sound bland for something as exciting as Bitcoin. However, trusted price formation is a fundamental part of advancing the promise of digital currencies.” - CEO, Bakkt
My feeling is .20 is the bottom, but .07 would be a gift, as is .20 for this coin.
If Bitcoin falls to $4000 then 10cents is a real possibility
If you have not bought yet then you wont be buying at any price.
And some will be quadrupling up at 10cents
Nahh. They’ll be waiting for 5cents…
A valid observation. Those who are always waiting for the price to drop rarely buy when it is dropping - fearing it will drop more.
Yes David, If they believe in the project and have faith it will deliver then the purchase price not so much an issue. But if you’re out to maximize profits and trade then maybe. Right now its not a question of if but more when. I rather have bought then to regret not buying at whatever price
Ive just added to my stash. This has been a great little buy opportunity, for those with strength to buy anyway.
Hopefully the over invested are at a better level now.
Now time to sit back and wait for a more reasonable mkt price.
Like taking candy from a baby.
The question is if one should buy now or wait for even an even better price.
How’s the trading been going? Easy work at the moment hey!
Hedge your bets and buy some now and see what happens later. By buying the dips in small amounts and more often you usually do better than waiting too long. And worse if you were lucky enough to get the rock bottom prices.