MaidSafeCoin (MAID) - Price & Trading topic


#2237

It’s all about supply & demand.

If the early investors all dumped their coins as soon as the network they’ve invested a lot into launches, and demand doesn’t increase due to the launch, then yes, the price could be suppressed significantly.

But what’s the chance of the market cap prior to launch being that low? And what’s the chance that all early investors will dump at once? What’s the chnace that there will be little increased interest post launch?

I’m more concerned with the far bigger amount of dilution set to come through farming rewards over time, and pay the producer if that happens. I don’t see the need for it in the Safe economy, other than to spread ownership away from early investors and towards farmers, app devs, and Safe network devs, even though their incentives would be exactly the same without the dilution due to the way the network will aportion rewards. So I don’t think this around 80% dilution will help the network, it’ll just spread the resource ownership (which may be the intention?).


#2238

Aside from the sketchy article quoted and the numerous rebuttals to a list of fallacies.
On this particular qoute and only considering this qoute. A 33% drop on todays investment at launch based on those calculations assumes NO INCREASE from today through beta and test safecoin and launch for that matter.
Entirely unreasonable scenario.


#2239

The point I want to highlight is the percent drop in value. The numbers (how high or low the Market Cap is) really don’t matter in terms of percent drop. The percent drop in value will be 33.3% regardless of the current ask price.

This will happen even if no early investors sell, unless the market cap increases once the early investor safecoins are released.


#2240

It’s all about supply & demand.

Yes, supply will increase by 226,276,206 Safecoins the day of launch


#2241

Ive just woke up, so im sure im missing something obvious. But how does a drop in value allow anyone to sell at an increased price of 33%.


#2242

Maybe, maybe not…I am really asking for clarification or verification on the scenario above:

FOR EXAMPLE ONLY:

PreLaunch MAID ask value $1 on Polo exchange with Ask volume depth of 5 million MAID (again this could be any number, let’s look at percent change)
Access to Safecoins to sell:
Early Investor = No
MAID Coin holders = No

Access to MAID coins to sell:
Early investor = No (at least not from the early investor pool of 226,276,206 Safecoins)
MAID Coin holders = Yes

Post Launch
Access to Safecoins to sell:
Early Investor = YES
MAID Coin holders = YES

Access to MAID coins to sell:
Early investor = No - Can only exchange 1 for 1 to Safecoin
MAID Coin holders = No - Can only exchange 1 for 1 to Safecoin

Polo Exchange Ask still is $1 (until folks start selling or buying) but the supply just increased by 226,276,206. The real value due to the supply increase should have Safecoins at $0.667. So if an early investor can sell off their Safecoins before others do they will see a 33.3% return vs. actual value (this will vary depending on the volume of Ask). Again this does not take into account for farming, the SAFE algorithm, or any others buying and selling which will change the market price.


#2243

The market cap will increase by 33.3% on the day of launch, not decrease if the available supply increases by 33.3% and the price remains the same.

The price is set by supply and demand on exchanges, not total supply.

So if the early investors keep their stash & don’t sell anything immediately, market cap will increase by 33.3%. If they sell, and how much they sell will affect the levels of supply on exchanges, and demand will be dictated by how many buyers will emerge following launch, and those are two unknowns.

Market cap is a function of available supply and current price, and the price is set by supply and demand on exchanges. A change in the total available supply doesn’t push anyone’s value down unless they’re dumped, which would put downward pressure on the price (though not necessarily reduce the price, as increased demand may more than match this effect).


#2244

Ok, perfect thank you for this information. I hate to be a skeptic but how do you know this? Cause I did not think this was the case. I could definitely be wrong. Could be basic info…sorry for all the confusion if this is the case!!!


#2245

Not really, see any of David’s previous reference to the fact that these coins will not all suddenly be sold onto the market when the network launches. You can find the exact details and quotes by searching the forum I’m sure, but I would not worry, a few % of those might be sold over the first month or two, but why would those investors who have waited 10 years suddenly rush to sell their coins just as it looks like they might be worth a fortune?

There will be no sudden airdrop of 200M coins on the market. If anything there will be very few sellers and a lot of buyers, so the price should keep going up pretty consistently.

I will do a McAfee and swear to eat my ‘hat’ if the price of SAFEcoin falls over any given month for the 3-4 months after launch. A drop of 30% will not happen, a rise of hundreds of % is much more likely.


#2246

Thanks Everyone,

DavidMc0 understands my mental block here. To sum up my question another way, will the MarketCap increase, stay the same, or decrease upon launch with respects to only the increase in supply? Even if not all the early investors coins are released.


#2247

If the available supply is increased by any given percentage and the price stays constant, the market cap would increase by exactly the same percentage.

Market Cap = price x available supply

What happens to the price is up to the market and is anyone’s guess… though I hope it drops over the course of at least one month of the first 3-4 months so @Jabba has to eat a hat :slight_smile:


#2248

You have chocolate hats, you know.
And McAfee promised to eat something else, which I hope he won’t do.


#2249

You are assuming something for this calculation which is a little unrealistic. You assumed (or the calculation assumed) that the demand for Safe Coin would be constant on launch and the early investors would sell all those coins at the same time. Ok first of all if Safe network launches the demand would increase by few folds very quickly and thus the demand would not be constant. And I dont think early investors are stupid enough to sell all just at the launch. Best idea is to hold for 2-3 years after the network launches. Don’t worry just hold the coin at your convenience and as per your knowledge.


#2250

aww c’mon… the TV ratings would be through the roof.
Now, if we could just get @Jabba to follow John’s lead a little more explicitly, we would give our marketing team a real boost. :wink:


#2251

Nope the 226 million are reserved not issued. They may be issued over a period of time (YEARS) or may not.

These coins are only issued WHEN the investors wants to give up their shares in Maidsafe. So they are not even available to be sold until shares are swapped for the coins and then only if that investor sells will they affect price.


#2252

The drop is likely to be prior to the swap as MAID traders who don’t want to have SAFEcoin dump their trading stock of MAID.


#2253

@ goindeep. Would you care to update your thoughts on Safecoin price speculation from those that you made a year ago on a legacy thread?


#2254

MAID regaining ground (nearly 10K) against BTC from its 8000 low and all while BTC remaining up towards ATH.

Was approx 34 cents around a week ago and now around 42 cents.


#2255

A year ago, some were predicting a market cap for MAID today at $100 million. It is nearly double that. What do members think about a market cap in another 12 months


#2256

Sudden jump of 10 cents. 50 cents now.