MaidSafeCoin (MAID) - Price & Trading topic (Part 1)

Yes that roadmap. Seems like an awful lot to do. But maybe to a coder/developer it’s not. Just my experience from observing the progress over years, maybe still years. I would love to be corrected.

So we need a roadmap for the roadmap maybe??))

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I agree with this, its great to try to get it as good as it can be before launch but I fear that the longer it takes the less users there will be when it does finally go live.

There are other projects for decentralised storage cementing their position and developing partnerships, and although that’'s not all SAFE does it could be a great driver for adoption.

Also if privacy coins are going to have a chance at getting big because of regulation / kyc and so on unmasking and tracking users then that will probably happen before too long and it would be a shame if safecoin wasn’t around to draw users if / when it does.

There is couple decentralized storage projects, some decentralized networks and some decentralized servers but still SAFE network does not have any competitor who will be able to do it same or more.

It is better to have beta this year than wait for main lunch for all other projects, but after 2 years SAFE network might have still big adoption since start.

I hope this is not the case :sweat_smile:

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Mav calculate future value of 1 safecoin if SAFE network will be guite popular and several decades old.
For 1 safecoins you should get 52,5 GETs

This would mean in today prices to be profitable by farming safecoins.
1 SafeCoin should be worth around 12 000$ in today prices.

Edit: If price per 1 GB will drop to 50% every 5 years than after 30 years it would be around 1SafeCoin = 200$

No that isn’t the calculation. I love the sound of $12K safecoin but the calculation is nothing to do with safecoin price.

Would be interested to know how you progressed from 52.5M PUTs per safecoin to $12K per safecoin.

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It is based on today HW price 1 PUT = 8 MB, While from the start the farming can be less or more profitable, after 10 or 20 years the market should follow price of HW, bandwidth and maintenance. $12k price was only with today price of HW, $200 would be after 30 years if 1GB price will drop to half every 5 years.

And two more assumptions :

  • GET is just little bigger than PUT

  • 90% of all SafeCoins are on the market

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And @mav was misreading the calculations. The storecost is in units of PUT balance and does not equate to PUTs/coin

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I was recently asked

is there any chance you could give a realistic price expectation of Maidsafecoin

The chance of me giving a price expectation is 100% (here it is!) but the chance of it being realistic is 0% (since nobody knows the future!)


Starting with an upper bound on growth, look at the most wildly successful companies in a somewhat similar space to this project:

Dropbox took 11 years to reach 11B market cap

Amazon 24 years to reach 963B

Google 20 years to reach 830B

Microsoft 43 years to reach 877B

Facebook 14 years to reach 475B

Ebay 23 years to reach 32B

Bitcoin 10 years to reach 111B

Western Digital 48 years to reach 17B

Seagate 39 years to reach 13B

Comcast 55 years to reach 162B

Alibaba 19 years to reach 422B

Netflix 21 years to reach 160B

Salesforce 19 years to reach 120B

Spotify 12 years to reach 32B

Orange SA 30 years to reach 42B

YCombinator 13 years to reach 100B

Averaging this out, I would be thinking that wild success would be something like 273B market cap in 25 years (assumptions abound).

Adjust for confidence / risk that the network will or will not be a wild success - probably not a linear adjustment since the distance between each of the top companies in each field is quite significant. For the statement “There’s X% chance of capturing X% market share” I put long-term X at about, maybe… 5 (you could do X and Y instead of X and X but the tighter constraint of just one variable is a more interesting thought experiment). The network is still a risky development; existing markets won’t be easy to migrate across and new markets take time to discover the best solutions. But X could easily be higher, based on a growing desire for control over personal data, simplification of data administration, growth in the sharing economy, a great story to go with the product, powerful and user-friendly apps from the start, broadness of the problem and solution space being addressed, extremely robust underlying technology, brilliant people being continually attracted to the project, clear governance and development models, permissionless participation… or lower, since the techology is unproven, the market is complex, regulatory environment is unclear, inertia of existing crypto ecosystem…

Adjust for broadness of the network. It’s software, but it’s also hardware, but it’s also an ecosystem, but it’s also a database, but it’s also apps, … so comparing to any single existing company may or may not be valid. For simplicity I’m just going to assume it’s comparable to a single wildly successful tech company.

Adjust for timing - inflation rate of new safecoins, development, onboarding app developers, influences by governance and red tape, time to research undeveloped features, capacity of the network to increase available resources, rate of white hats vs rate of black hats… too many unknowns so I’ll just say it follows an average wildly succesful company timeline of 25 years.

I have no clear answer to what I think the price will be. Taking a really simplistic approach, 5% confidence of a 13B (273×0.05) market cap would be a 1-in-20 chance of 100x the current valuation in a period of up to 25 years (actually it’s the first time I’ve put numbers to this, to me the tech is the interesting part, the market and price is really boring).

What’s your X in “There’s X% chance of capturing X% market share”?

Do you think the analysis of wildly successful companies needs adjusting? What does ‘mildly’ successful look like?

What about the timeline? Do the past 12 years of development count? Is it a fast growth or slow growth network?

Will the existing market be attracted enough to change to using SAFE? How will that happen?

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I think a high realistic long term goal is $20.00 per SAFE Coin. But since this is crypto and many successful projects generally get pumped to the moon I personally want to see $60.00 per SAFE Coin, and that is what the greedy investor in me wants (cause who doesn’t want financial freedom where money is no longer a stress). What the techy nerd side of me wants is to see this baby live in action helping millions around the world store and access data quickly and securely. With further version releases that can support crazy ideas like VMs running on SAFE for remote desktop or something of that nature.

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95% of current crypto projects that currently have a coin, if not more, will be expelled from existence in the next 3-6 years. We will be left with far fewer projects or those projects that do exist will hold no real value for anything other than individualized utility such as a gambling coin at an online block chain casino. If this succeeds it will hit $20 so fast your head will spin. That’s a 9 billion market cap give or take. Assuming success of the network this will blow through and hold $150 no problems no issues. We are also assuming a growth in all things crypto over the next 2 years which appears roughly where we are headed to launch. It’s also worth considering all those company market caps listed by @mav can all be accomplished or used in some way on the network.

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Total coin supply is about 4.5 Billion though its not in circulation yet. But as the network would go live the circulation is expected to be more than 2 Billion (after 1 years of launch) at any time that makes it a $40 Billion market cap for $20 price. This is highly doubtable in current setup, however the future is expected to change with mass adoption.

That doesn’t make sense. The supply at 20 years is not expected to be 4 billion or above. Why soon after live would it be 2 billion. That is like an extra 1.25 billion rise without even considering the spend (destroy) rate.

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Beat me to it. There will be likely less than the current 452 million in the first few months once we go live. Most hodlers won’t fully transition their coins until they absolutely have to (months/years later) Upward pressure will very possibly catch many off guard.

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I didn’t mean just after the launch but say after 1 year of launch.

And I was meaning upto say 5 years

Think about it… If the rate of increase over resource purchases is 1.25 billion per year then farmers are getting virtually nothing in the 4th year and beyond because all coins exist.

Year 0 - 15% → ~40% (670M → 1.75B)
Year 1 - ~40% → ~65% (1.75B → 3.0B)
Year 2 - ~65% → 90% (3.0B → 4.25B)
Year 3 - ~90% → 100% (4.25B → ALL)

So after year 3 the only coins given to farmers are the ones being spent. And at the rate you suggested then its no where near what the previous years were

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Is it so? As per my understanding the rate of conversion from current network to SAFE would be highest in the 1st year itself or as long as the complete data is not transferred. So the burning rate would be higher but due to many new users the generating rate is also expected to be higher. Now as there are only 10-15% coins would be in circulation when the network goes live I am expecting heavy compensation by the algorithm for adoption (or due to less circulation). Eventually there would be a stability after awhile. So the numbers in circulation would rapidly increase at the beginning and then it would increase at a decreasing rate till stability
Well I may be wrong but my limited understanding gives me this conclusion.

P.S: I never said the increase in circulation would be linear. After 3-4 years (or more depending on adoption), the rate of generating new coins and the rate of burn needs to be very close to each other for stability.

That has never been suggested and there has never been any suggestion that special rates according to the life stage of the network.

If anything it will be low rate at the start because there is not so much data to be retrieved. This means low issuance of coins due to farming. As the network gets more and more data then the issuance rate increases because more data is being retrieved since there is more data being stored.

And of course the coins are being destroyed as people store data. As the network grows in the first 6 - 12 months there is a lot more data being stored than being retrieved as the web pages are built and files are being stored (before anyone can retrieve the data - farming). The data has to exist first.

Doesn’t really matter the issuance rate will be lowest at the start of the network (see above) and only really start slowing again as the number of coins existing gets past say 50 to 75%

Year 1 will likely see a decrease in total coins existing since some or lots of the 15% will be used to store data and the data has to be stored before farmers can farm. And the amount of data stored (and available to farm) in the first year will be the smallest of any year after that due to lower numbers of people storing data

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Correct, its all my understanding or my point of view. Thus I said my understanding rather than from past information.

Yes totally agreed. But I am thinking, all the vaults would be empty as there is no data so the cost to store data would be much less, wouldn’t it? Yes the reward from farming would also be lower due to less data to retrieve but I am expecting the number of coins in circulation would increase, again totally my view.
In real life this happens almost always, say, I am drawing my conclusion from bitcoin mining, the rewards were much higher at the beginning. Yes, I know the concept, working strategy and everything for SAFE Network and SAFE Coin is totally different from Bitcoin but I am just giving a real life example.