Generally agreed on multiple fronts. The first time I performed this analysis, I also took into account that of the 7.6B people on earth in 2017, only ~50% of people have access to the internet. The number of internet users has grown by ~12% annually with a standard deviation of ~3% over the past 10 years. Based on these calculations we could theoretically achieve a ~100% global user rate by 2025 (holding constant for sociopolitical strife etc. which would suppress the growth rate, and much like freight I think the “last mile” so to speak will be the trickiest and most expensive part to complete).
Due to lack of access to a better data set I backed into an average growth rate for the value of the internet over the past 23 years (~4.8% annually).
You combine these two thought exercises together and we’re looking at the value of the internet being ~$30T in 2025. That’s just from sheer organic growth and doesn’t even take into account the innovations you’ve mentioned
Not entirely sure what nuance you’re calling out here. Market cap is the total number of coins in circulation (not absolute total coins) multiplied by the average per coin price. So, if the value for the internet is ~$30T in 2025, SAFE seizes 10% of the value by that time, and ~1B Safecoins are in existence at that time, then the price would be $3,000 per coin.
This of course is very rough math. For example, it doesn’t take into account value-increasing innovation that could allow SAFE to secure more of the internets value (upward pressure on price). It also does not take into account the difficulty of the farming algorithm (if easier could result in more coins at that time placing downward pressure on price). Those are just a few weak points in the analysis, but it helps to construct a hopefully helpful picture of the potential.