Dido. Probably what bothered me most. I have a pessimistic uncle that considers himself a realist and it is no better a perspective than an optimist. They both have their pros and cons and are more likely viewpoints that help individuals cope with hardships or challenges so I don’t want to attack him for his perspective but I don’t want to see others attacked on theirs either. Whether he thinks they are unrealistic or not it’s unnecessary to piss on peoples inner fires or make pointed comments.
Well said. Sometimes it’s hard for people to find the line between real and just being unhelpful and rude.
Thank You! Will be testing this tonight. Will let you know how it goes
It seems there are not any sellers anymore. After 2 days almost no new coins were added to the sell walls. HitBTC has only 100k MAID for sale under 2000 satoshi. Bittrex increased sell orders from 3BTC to 6 BTC total under 2000 satoshi in 2 days. But those sell orders are around 2000 price tag. When some coin pumps 50% in few hours it usually is followed by large new sell walls. And what we see is much less MAID available for sale than it was before the pump happened. It starts to be obvious that there is no dumping anymore and therefore the only way is up.
3 posts were split to a new topic: Lets try to draw attention towards MAID
Looking at coinmarketcap historical data, I was interested in what sort of price increase might be considered normal.
The answer is: between 2.5x to 63x price increase.
How did these numbers come about?
The coinmarketcap historical snapshots are taken once a week starting end of April 2013 up until now (397 weeks worth of data). Each snapshot contains the top 200 coins for that week.
Since the coins in the top 200 change week by week, there’s a total of 1699 coins that appear at some point in the data.
Some coins are meaningless and are ignored. I’ve filtered out any coins with less than 10 weeks in the top 200, or less than 1M USD total trade volume, or a lowest price less than 0.0001 USD. This filters out 1083 coins, leaving us with 616.
Of the remaining coins, the largest price increase is calculated (if we calculate the maximum / minimum price we might accidentally be calculating the largest decrease in price, so we only look for price increases).
From this, the median was found to be 6.9x increase. Half the coins had more than 6.9x as their biggest price increase, half the coins had less.
More meaningful is the quartiles. Half the coins had between 2.5x to 63x increase, the other half of the coins had an increase outside that range.
We can also look at percentiles, the 10th percentile gives a range of increases between 1.5x to 904x (10% of coins had less than 1.5x increase and 10% had more than 904x increase).
These price increases happened over various periods. The first and third quartiles for duration was 42 to 406 days (ie half of all coins increased between that amount of time, the other half of the coins took less or more time for their increase). The median duration was 147 days.
MAID’s biggest increase in price was 96x, from $0.012 on 2014-05-11 to $1.16 on 2018-01-07. So MAID had an unusually large increase in price compared to other coins. The time between these two prices was 1337 days.
BTC records start a bit later than the first traded coins, but for the available time period the largest increase in price was 256x, from $74.56 on 2013-07-07 to $19140.76 on 2017-12-17 which is a period of 1624 days.
There’s so many ways to analyse this, not sure if I’ve approached it in a suitable way, but I figure it’s gotta be better than just guessing.
If we were to arbitrarily take the recent MAID low point of $0.10 we’d expect a 50:50 chance of a future price increase to somewhere between $0.25 to $6.30
Here’s the historical data and calculated price increases: https://mega.nz/folder/IcEiQLbA#SdhyBXN7U11ZkHt6dKnNFA
Feels like it would be more pertinent to know what the coins that hit the top 100 between March 2016 and January 2018 and also include those same parameters that you set. I think not trying to look at it exclusively through the lens of a bull run cycle would be a mistake. I’m not sure if that would change the multiples up or down but it at least puts you in the same area we are now. Also there needs to be adjusted value for where a particular project was at that point. If memory serves me, ethereum for instance launched around that point with working product, while cardano was just hope. Not sure if I’m correct in what I’m saying but it feels like those are reasonable thresholds.
Anyone knows about this article?
I added these two additional filters. This leaves 58 coins.
The new quartile range for price increase is between 9x to 129x (ie 50% of coins are in this window, 25% had less than 9x increase, 25% had more than 129x increase).
The median was 39x increase.
Just need to 4.5x to reach ATH. Although going sideways now would be better than going up imo.
I better post about the motivation for looking into coinmarketcap history of price increases… It was originally inspired by this
How likely is MAID to reach $600?
If it were to go from a low of $0.10 to a high of $600 that’s a 6000x increase.
The coinmarketcap historical data has 18 of 616 coins with an increase of this large or more. That gives us about a 2.9% chance of reaching that degree of increase (just by the stats, ignoring any external context or quality factors).
If we take it from the price today of around $0.20 that’s a 3000x increase, which has been achieved by 33 of 616 coins, giving about a 5.3% chance.
I guess with increases this large it’s sorta not that meaningful to talk about the odds, but my goal is not to give a definite concrete answer, just to update the understanding from ‘less understanding’ to ‘more understanding’.
Overall the risk:reward seems pretty decent to me from these numbers.
To look some other odds:
$10 = 100x increase = 134/616 coins achieved it = 21% chance
$3 = 30x increase = 187/616 coins achieved it = 30% chance
Ethereum made x10000 at its peak, I think Safe can handle it much better
Great stuff, @mav - keep it coming!
I think this sort of analysis helps us to comprehend just how large the increases have been in past cycles. It sounds crazy, it sounds mad, but it happened multiple times over the last decade.
If there is a working test net showing some basic but functional features then then this only makes the chance of a larger increase hugely more likely
You are talking only about the chances of 10x, 100x, 1000x increase. Once you reach a certain marketcap what are the chances that such marketcap would still be the same after certain preiod of time lets say 6-12months. How many coins, once reached absurd increase actually had same price after several months. What are chances then?
I see what your saying that a lot of the crazy gains are temporary but with projects such as safe then the crazy gains will be long lived if signs are shown of a working product
Well. All BS aside, it is me saying what most people here do not wanna hear and people trying to punish me for that. And me having a blast. I just 5usd sober broke into a 600usd party when all attendees were already drunk.
Their neocortex out of order, they let the good old animal that bites out. I shot it. What now? Animal rights crowd. There are people who understand the context, and there is the SAFE police.
I mean, I have seen it before and I like experiencing it myself. Intellectual dishonesty, idiotic self-projection, gentle cowardice, self-defense falsely branded as unnecessary whatever, reason (since we are being positive, Traktion, mav, Antifragile…), the entity named Audity who is an entire universe for himself. It is all good. We are just another Bosch painting. Scratch the one you hate, somebody else is gonna do that job anyway.
Thank you. That should provide an interesting base, without adding subjective value.