MaidSafeCoin (MAID) - Price & Trading topic (Part 1)

/edit woops, wrong movie. Gonna watch it for sure, thanks!

My inner pedant must point out that android does indeed have a Linux kernel. However, Google added their own stuff on top of it (UI), rather than using the GNU stack.

I think the point is that open source usually means many people contributing towards a single goal. If maidsafe (foundation) start adding code to syphon a fee from downloads, I can see a fork on the horizon though, as it becomes a commercial interest that may prove unpopular.

FWIW, I would much rather maidsafe positioned themselves as a safe net consultancy and administration firm. There is money to be made from DNS (from names reserved prior to public launch) and various support/consulting services (like redhat) etc. Maybe that is going OT though!

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Yeah thats kinda my point, why only “on top”? Why dont they take the kernel and make it their own? But yeah, we’re getting off

Re: all in poker style betting, LOL well an apt reply inside this trading topic room, it would be different in a room of investors.

I refer to long term investment. I’m no stranger to both modes, betting and investing. 100x-1000x is out there all the time. Early stage startups is very similar where 95-99% fail, and you look at things like team, timing and execution. It’s not enough that the tech checks out. The idea is deeply exciting, but the road ahead is very long, as winning on adoption is never to be under estimated. For MAID I’d take a look at the team’s ability to rally support, it’s nowhere near the kind of support you see the Ethereum team able to execute upon. Their devcon’s even their devcon 1 had immense hype. Building these ecosystems is key, and I haven’t seen this kind of execution from the team yet, so far it’s executing deeply in the tech part of the vend diagram. History shows the best technical solution hardly ever wins. Our Internet is a hodge podge mesh of whatever won adoption. POP beat IMAP, HTTP was designed by a CERN scientist which computer science guys cringe at. MAID could easily be relegated to the sidelines as IPFS and alternative, simpler compute blockchains grab faster adoption. Not ideal, but winning adoption is never what is the “best tech”.

OTOH I understand all in bets. In the trade, this is the way you win. Especially trading Maid due to its own whale driven peculiarities. But even then, you can be all in but you traders have stop-loss safeguards which is the equivalent to the investor’s safeguard of portfolio allocation. Elite trades routinely lose 75% of their trades but they employ loss containment strategies.

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A very thoughtful post. Less about trading and more about

So @willywoo any thoughts on how MAID could execute differently?? It may well be they have no choice but to be buried [quote=“willywoo, post:480, topic:9923”]
deeply in the tech part of the vend diagram.
[/quote]

but parallel efforts?

Your thoughts?

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I think the team is missing the hustler part of the basic hacker-hustler-designer trio that all founding teams try to build. Quoting Chamath Palihapitiya “I look for an animal in the team”… that crazy demented frother is usually the hustler.

VCs would look at the team makeup quite seriously.

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http://documentary-movie.com/inside-job/ movie Inside Job - full HD

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Who has any thoughts on the what effect a successful vs unsuccessful funding round will have on the price? Price is holding steady even with a flavor of uncertainty in the air… perhaps no effect?

Successful funding means a rapid expansion of developers/development, when an unsuccessful funding would mean things can’t be really forced to go more rapidly, but keep evolving a more natural way which doesn’t mean things will go bad.

There’s no shortage of money as you can hear and read from @nicklambert, there’s only a desire to go faster by the team to bring us the network and to make use of it by themself.

The other thing that could happen if the funding is not met is that some community members will get nervous and some fud will be released in the wild, this will feed opponents wishes to bring us in a negative spiral and a first attack on excitement will be made.

I think no matter what happens, the team and community shouldn’t give attention to this. Things are going great, even if marketcap falls back to 15mil$ (Totally hypothetical and paranoia thoughts :smile:) this will only be temporarily and there will come help from unexpected places. I would be really really surprised if not!
So actually without big funding now, I think most what it can do is stretch the time frame a year or so …

All by all no worry, I’m totally not afraid, this network will come and once the incentives for developers are build-in, this could go uphill straight forward.

So keep calm, relax and enjoy. The worst that could happen if things go all temporarily negative is that we’ll have to wait a little longer.

One thing I’ve learned is: Time is always quicker in our heads then it is in reality, and negativism is used to fill the gaps created by the stretch of this reality.

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:joy_cat: <<< instinctive reaction to attempts at price prediction

For one, the current market cap is low enough that there are plenty of players who can decide to shove the price up or down tens of percents, if that’s what any news (or whims) make them inclined to do.

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Indeed a wild beast.
I feel as though only public vaults with persistent data will see the next spike and continued growth. For nearly two years I did nothing but aquire MAID. I now for the first time hold none. It’s a big gamble there is every chance that I am wrong but what is life without some risk.

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While I understand (even share!) @Jabba’s opinion when he says SAFE is an unusually undervalued opportunity, I still think that risk is best when it’s well managed.

I’d rather risk 10% of my equity (thus, sadly, limit my profit to a 10th of the possible) than risk it all with the chance of losing it all. I think it’s the right choice especially when I suspect a huge possible payout: then even that 10% could profit a lot if I’m right, yet I won’t go under if I’m wrong. Because, what is life without getting some sleep at night every once in awhile? :kissing_cat:

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I’ve been all-in, and slept fine without selling, for 2 years. Except for those times I did sell, because I can’t keep my mouth shut and people want to borrow all my money lol.

The one time I did sell it all (on my own volition, without anyone else’s feedback) I was drunk on Scotch—and it was near the peak/ATH lol.
But I ended up losing 10,000 MAID anyway, because I bought back in. DELIBERATELY AT A HIGHER PRICE, because that’s how much I care (a.k.a. 0%) about “market dynamics” compared to the actual value of this network.

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@Audity Man, kudos to you! I’ve got skin in the game, but you have what Nassim Taleb calls ‘soul in the game’. Very impressed!

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Well, now that you brought up Nassim Taleb, I believe he’s 100% against “all in,” and instead suggests something like keeping much (80-90%) of what you have in cash equivalents, and then spreading the rest as broad as you can afford; that’s how you can stay both protected (“live another day to fight”) and maximally exposed to optionality (you can expect rare events to show up more often on a larger surface.)

EDIT: To quantify why spreading across multiple things is sensible: If you have 1% chance for that lucky thing to happen for a single thing during a period, then, for that same period, you have 9.5% chance if you diversified over 10 things, 18% for 20, almost 40% for 50, and over 63% for 100 things. So, it does not only lower risk, but also helps with compounding.

EDIT #2: The 80% cash thing is of course for if you can buy options. If all you can do is go long or short then things are a bit different, but the idea to diversify as much as possible still holds.

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Sometimes the perfect state of mind for trading and other risky things like installing Tinder.

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In with 50%+ of my portfolio. Holding and adding since February. Seeing no reason to sell, every reason to buy more…)
I have never seen an opportunity like this and been in position to support and benefit (hopefully) from it. The longer to launch, the more I will buy and am on margin with some but can cover should it really go south temporarily.

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I’m not really for or against ‘all-in’ strategies. I just think every situation and opportunity is completely unique and needs to be judged on its own merits. Every person’s risk tolerance and ‘investment portfolio’ is also different, so it all depends.

I don’t think talking about dogmatic % limits/levels helps really. At the end of the day it’s all just common sense based on your goals. Like Tim says, 10% suits him, he doesn’t want to risk it all and he’ll be happy with a big win from 10% of his capital. I’m quite happy having 60%+ in SAFE ecosystem - freerolling value and notional wealth that I only have because I chucked a lot into SAFE late last year when it sunk under 4k sats. Really, I could expose myself massively, lose it all and I’d still be ahead/even, so my ability to tolerate risk and the % I can hodl are higher than they would be for many others entering now. My goals might also be more or less ambitious than others, just as Traktion wanted to pay his house deposit, a day trader is happy with a few % now to turn a profit today, and Roger Ver wanted to support a cause to change the world.

There are no hard and fast rules really. Common sense is analysing your own situation rather than borrowing the logic and boundaries that other people use.

Tim is right though, it is crazy to over-expose yourself if you can’t handle the hit to fight another day. Bankroll management is very important, but that doesn’t mean you don’t create as big a pot as you can when a whale raises into your monster ;). You don’t see the nutz that often, but it does fall into your lap every now and then :wink:

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Well, it seems I’m the only cowardly one around here :joy_cat: Fortunately, when it’s about money, I only maintain convictions about treading (thus, trading) carefully, so I couldn’t take pride in betting big anyway :smirk_cat:

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Spot on, Jabba. When you clearly have a very good hand, you can bet accordingly, while saving some to play another day in case of the outer edge probability/chance of being wrong. I like the odds here on all fronts as has been pointed out in numerous ways - technology, team, timing all lining up. Marketing is the next front to create but I think that is coming and am not worried. Still, it is not easy to wait and endure the price action that is sometimes frustrating.

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