Bitcoin’s problem is that most people aren’t interested at all because they already have their bankster money. Only after that bankster money fails them they become interested in Bitcoin. But the only viable way to get Bitcoin is by buying it with bankster money, which at that point they don’t have proper access to anymore.
My hope is that many millions of people will get into possession of SafeCoin not because it may be an alternative to bankster money, but because it is useful in everyday life to make use of SAFE services. Then in the future when the next country gets hit by heavy capital controls, there will be enough SafeCoin around to actually function as a common medium of exchange.
What surprises me most about these debt crises, is that almost none seems to recognize that our utter dependency on fractional reserve banking is the biggest problem of all. This was already true for the Great Depression in the 1930’s. The monetarist view is that it was initially a normal recession, but became the Great Depression because the Fed allowed many major banks to collapse under bank runs, which also caused monetary contraction of 35%.
Considering the insane transfer of Big Debt from the private sector to the public due to the financial crisis of 2008, it’s pretty obvious saving banks isn’t a pretty alternative either. The concept of “too big to fail” banks is fundamentally anti-capitalist as well. Why be mindful of risks if you can transfer any losses to the public anyway?
The current solution of our governments won’t be effective. You can’t stabilize a fundamentally unstable system by putting more and more regulation on top of it. Not only does it make our societies more and more totalitarian, those with insatiable greed in their hearts will always find the inevitable loopholes. In addition, instability/volatility in the financial sector is a necessity for it’s profitability. If the system is too stable, participants will simply make use of leverage to increase the magnitude of the stakes. When this is done on a major scale, that newly introduced instability becomes the new nature of the system.
What we, the common people, need to do, is insulate ourselves against this inherent instability of the financial sector. Our fractional reserve bank accounts (and pension funds) leave us fully exposed to it, at the very bottom of the pyramid! Crypto-currencies give us the chance to break loose from the monopoly on financial infrastructure of the banking system, providing the desired insulation. We need to be smart about taking this opportunity though, Bitcoin for example is too crude for this purpose. We also can’t make this transition just by ourselves, we need to take many millions of people with us, or else it won’t do.
Phew! I think I went a bit off-topic.
Well said, @Seneca. The brilliance of the SAFE model really is in its all-inclusiveness. Everyone in the modern world depends upon data. Data is currently insecure and subject to incredibly high rent payments to ISPs, telecoms, gov’ts, server farms that remind one of the energy harvesting towers in the Matrix.
Safecoin will start to appear ubiquitously because people will be providing the value locally that starts the global connections. They’ll be good stewards of the data of the world, not leaches. In exchange they’ll get crypto-tokens that will quickly be recognized and transacted globally. I will take safecoin in exchange for products or services from day one. Many will quickly follow.
You’re right. At just the time that people will wish to switch their fiat money for bitcoin, it’s too late. The fiat was an illusion all along.
Safecoin is real because it’ll be backed by the data and communications of the world, to a greater and greater degree.
Oh, my. (fan, fan, fan) Me too, Seneca, me too.
Let’s not forget how far Bitcoin has brought us. It is still blazing trails and giving people new options and the blockchain has become very interesting technology in general.
My maidsafe coins are also made possible via Bitcoin. If it wasn’t for Bitcoin - and the master protocol on top - I suspect funding safe net would have been much harder.
Technology evolves quickly. I hope Safecoin moves the game on, but credit where credit is due, etc.
This is key, and I think we should explore this concept further. Fiat currency is backed by (financial) assets of many kinds, but every kind of asset has a degree of risk. The degree of risk influences the value of assets, but unless you can look into the future, you can never be sure of this degree of risk. Winning in the game of finances is a matter of having a more accurate view on risk than others. This may include actively deceiving others about risks, which as we have seen can lead to major crises.
So on one hand we have fiat currencies, mostly backed by financial assets (including a lot of debt), and on the other hand we have SafeCoin, backed by it’s (cloud) services and it’s contents. So I think that to beat fiat in trustworthiness, the risk of failure of proper functioning of SAFE or collapse of demand for SAFE should become lower than the risk on the financial assets backing fiat. Given the quality of minds pushing this project forward on one hand, and the abysmal state of the financial sector on the other, I think we stand a good chance of achieving this.
I also think that the true market cap for SafeCoin is equal to the total value SAFE’s services provide. Which, to make things complicated, includes the service of SafeCoin as a currency and SAFE’s network effect. Bitcoin only has the currency service and it’s network effect. I think SAFE’s other services will do a lot to consolidate it’s network effect.
Glad I’m not the only one, I love thinking about all this. I really like to try to develop new economic hypothesis around these new concepts, and see how these concepts fit into established economic theory. Especially the issue of deflation is an interesting one to tackle. If we can manage to order our thoughts and get a clear view on the true meaning and potential of these concepts, then we’ll be armed with well-considered answers when these new concepts are attacked by economists using 20th century economic theory.
Very true, the blockchain was and is a revolutionary invention. Yet I can’t help but seeing Bitcoin as “just” a (very successful) experiment and prototype. I don’t think Bitcoin will become the digital gold, nor the future of finance/money.
The second sentence is what really says “The sky’s the limit.” Network effect is a vastly powerful thing, if the network proliferates. The efficacy of safecoin will follow that curve, too.
I think we’ll have a lot of fun and mental satisfaction talking about it, but the economists? Meh . . . Hardly anybody is actually listening to the Keynesians anymore anyway. Students will politely take their grades from the tenured profs and then go ahead and spend their safecoins.
(You’re going to love tomorrows podcast.)
The bitcoin folks are too frightened to adapt the algorithms and protocols for fear of losing market cap, so instead of the possibility of a quick drop in marketcap, it may go up considerably, yet ultimately faces a slow death.
regarding deflation, I suspect that in the future people will merely issue and use their own asset backed by their reputation in order to achieve their ends. In such a manner the asset becomes a limited currency that is used so long as the venture is solvent and hence creating wealth for people. This is then a natural mechanism to manage inflation and deflation. Whereas now, the central banksters manipulate this with foreknowledge by adjusting prime interest rates and thus influencing all the banks ability to issue new bank credit (the prime mechanism of inflation and deflation in the modern economy). In the future things like safecoin will become the gold and silver - the perpetual money in the system and self-issued currencies will be temporary money that will fill the gaps as needed.
Nice post. I would argue ala Steve Keens ‘The roving cavaliers of credit’ that money multiplier/ fractional reserve is an outdated concept and that Banks today have no restriction on the quantity of loans they can create as long as they are solvent.
Of course since 2008 solvency has become an issue and with it the ability to create debt (money) and hence deflation. Peoples willingness to borrow also being an issue, hence the move into places like Africa (the unbanked) where under the guise of benevolence, they can issue more debt…worked well for big tobacco.
Although Armstrong does not concur with Keen or fractional reserve, his solution is for the government to print the money needed to run public infrastructure, eliminate all taxes, 1-2 year terms for representatives (lawyers do not qualify) …I think we might start seeing the sovereign money printing aspect making a comeback and Greece could be the big winner if they went first…I doubt it, but with China and Russia hovering who knows.
Your behind SAFE, but are building on NXT…is that because you believe NXT will become a SAFE overlay or maybe a bet each way…
I’m just impatient NXT has created a financial ecosystem and is way ahead of the pack with voting now implemented. My project gives a few tweaks and allows full decentralization of capital management using the NXT voting system.
I would love the financial ecosystem to be ported into Safe (and I think it will be). The problem is, I need it NOW! like yesterday now!.. So building on NXT.
I’m under the impression that NXT uses it’s own Blockchain. Was that a fork of Bitcoin or is it simply inspired by the Bitcoin design pattern?
It’s not a fork. They built everything from scratch. NXT is all coded in JAVA, bitcoin is ‘C’ I think. Certainly the general theory is the same as bitcoin, for the basic stuff, but they’ve gone a long way beyond bitcoin.
The real problem for crypto, IMO and pre-SafeNet, is the lack of people using it. We are mostly fighting among each other for market-share and that’s really hurting us. Safe will open the way for a lot more people to get involved.
If we can get a whole system of finance and management built atop Safe - and eventually we will, then watch out.
Agreed, too much friction to get into the ecosystem via Bitcoin…I just don’t think it’s a good system for consumers right now.
Any hope that Greece will now negotiate with its creditors should help to hold the euro for now. But keep in mind that Brussels has still not changed its mind or its philosophy. It is going to take more than just Grexit. Eventually, Greece will have to leave. There will be no choice and its government is acting like a total fool to negotiate with someone who looks down upon them and sees them as irrelevant.
The Greek banks must open and Greece by decree should transform all deposits into drachma that can exist purely electronically swapped at 2:1. This will allow the people to be paid and function. All external debt should be suspended. What euro notes remain in the banks should be transferred to the Treasury. You should follow the same plan as Roosevelt in the confiscation of gold in 1933 and the devaluation of the dollar.
Cut all ties to ANY negotiations with Brussels for more bailouts. Greece must stand on its own or go down with the euro. Brussels is not about to reform in any way to stabilize Europe. They are only interested in preserving their one government for all posture. The euro is NOT irreversible. The danger with such arrogance warns that this is drifting, as Margaret Thatcher warned from an economic union to a political union. The people did not vote in Greece to be subservient to Brussels and the youth really hates the Troika.
Greece has imposed new capital control laws. Technically, Greek lawmakers passed the capital control laws to stop people from evacuating all their money to overseas bank accounts and draining cash from the banking system. However, the laws also prevent everyday consumers from making even the smallest credit payments to foreign companies, including Apple, PayPal, and other staples of online life. This is why Greece must create a new currency and cut all ties to the euro immediately.
From the Syriza Policy Paper which details their proposed negotiating position with the Troika
(D) Establish a non-bank electronic payments system
Mobile telephony companies shall be obliged to establish and run a digital money wiring service based on SMS, regulated by the Central Bank of Greece. Users will be able to buy credit from kiosks or through their banks, which they can then use to pay for goods and services without any further intermediation by any financial institution. Mobile companies will participate for free, benefitting from the increase in SMS traffic. Balances will be kept on reserve at the Central Bank of Greece. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Greece can utilise this system, in collaboration with the Tax Office, to ensure that these transactions deliver VAT receipts instantly.
Note: The benefits from this scheme are multiple. First, they will allow citizens who no longer have (or never had) access to the banking system to enter into instantaneous non-cash transactions without incurring banking costs. Secondly, it will create a system of payments that gives society a degree of independence from the banking sector. Third, it will make it easier for the Tax Office to collect VAT. Fourth, in case of a Cyprus-like crisis, or worse, it allows society and the state to function better in case Greek banks are frozen out of ELA funding and can be part of contingent planning in case a new currency needs to be introduced.
- The Modest Proposal, with a Pan European Solidarity Program, to be discussed at the first European Summit under the new government.
The present Modest Proposal (Version 3.0) has three elements: debt mutualization, common bank supervision and a Pan-European investment program. Version 4.0 will add a Pan-European Solidarity Program, with the following elements to assure basic economic security to the entire population of Europe:
• common unemployment insurance.
• a basic food and electricity security program.
• a European Pension Union.
• a Topping-up Program for low earners.
• a common minimum wage.
@chrisfostertv I’ve been following the Greece EU situation fairly closely this last two months and reach time I’ve thought the EU had Tsipras check mate, he’s had another move. I hadn’t seen this proposal, and it suggests it’s not over yet… Thanks for sharing.
Yes, that’s a policy paper that was released prior to the election…prior to their experience behind the curtain.
I like to keep any eye on things in Europe since digesting the conclusion of the study: Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse:
This new study by David Korowicz explores the implications of a major financial crisis for the supply-chains that feed us, keep production running and maintain our critical infrastructure. He uses a scenario involving the collapse of the Eurozone to show that increasing socio-economic complexity could rapidly spread irretrievable supply-chain failure across the world.
Time to check my fishing tackle over…
haha your floating on food…do you use aniseed?