Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply that Bitcoin would be with us as the gold standard for the next century. I don’t generally think more than 10 years into the future because its likely to be so far removed from assumptions we make today. What I mean is in the short and medium term it seems unlikely to me that BTC will be displaced for its core function. I do strongly disagree that Bitcoin is just ‘technology’ though. I don’t think that’s any more true than ‘gold is just a metal’ or McDs is just burgers. There’s been a huge amount of energy and time poured into the Bitcoin brand and it is still the only globally recognised crypto. I see Bitcoin adopting and adapting to threats to its position as ‘store-of-value’ and a global settlement layer. Really, it is already much better than gold and has all the qualities it needs for that function. I don’t think being a bit cheaper or faster will undo the brand value of bitcoin as digital gold personally, so I find it hard to imagine it being displaced for that purpose. That doesn’t mean I don’t see the possibility of SAFE will a $20 trillion cap and BTC with a $10 trillion cap one day though. I just think BTC would make very poor currency right now, but I also don’t see how anything will be able to challenge it in the near term for store-of-value properties.
It sounds like you’re thinking in absolutes instead of shades of grey - slows, not stops. A holder does not stop spending or living, they simply try to hold as much as they can for as long as they can. The argument is not that money stops when it is deflationary, it is that is slows down relative to how big the deflation is. With slow growth like gold it is not a huge deal, with BTC at this stage it certainly looks like it is to me.
For example, I have not bought anything with BTC since I bought some gold in 2016. It cost me 2btc per ounce. Now 1BTC would buy me >4oz. I still spend my fiat to buy stuff, I still have to cash in the odd bit of BTC to fund my lifestyle. However, my crypto spending is very low. The Mrs wants a campervan conversion thing. She asked me at the start of this year. I told her she could have it at the end of next year because it will likely cost us less than half as much in BTC. The money has not stopped, nor has my life or my needs, but I have slowed down my plans and spending because it eats into our future in a much bigger way to spend now, at the early stages of BTC’s exponential growth.
I am not saying this is exclusively a bad thing btw. My point is not that hard money is bad. Quite the opposite. Without the deflationary effect of hard money I could not afford to get the campervan next year. Deflationary savings increase wealth and prosperity and they are great for the economy imho. Currency is a different matter though. It is useful for us to have access to both hard and soft money. The fiat crap in my bank is worth less every day, so I hold very little in there and I spend it without worrying about it. I have an incentive to spend it and I would never consider keeping any savings in fiat. It is reliable for the fact that it will be worth a tiny bit less each day, so folks can reliably plan, budget and fix prices around it, so it’s not all bad from a user perspective.
Anyway, if you don’t spend your deflationary assets any slower than your inflationary ones then fair play, but I know I do and I can think of several other friends in similar boats who are sitting on a fair amount of crypto-wealth but they’re not spending it like they would fiat because it is going up in value and they have plans for 5x or 10x what they have now. That is both a good and a bad thing. High velocity is good for growth, deflationary assets provide access to wealth and security. I don’t think any of this is black and white. I also don’t think the state is going anywhere for now (sadly), so we’ll have fiat to provide the soft money qualities that are useful and BTC or the like for the hard money qualities we all want and need. Imo other cryptos will need to aim at different niches than currency unless they find a way to solve stability and scalability at the same time. I reckon digital fiat will probably do a better job of being currency. Fine by me as BTC is censor resistant and convenient/cheap/secure etc. That’s all any of us need to change the wealth game really. Other cryptos will change lots of other things. Some may get bigger than BTC, but I doubt any will replace BTC as a simple store of value in the next 5-10 years. I also don’t see how BTC could be used as currency in anything other than dire need - like countries who’s fiat is too volatile or for black market purchases.